The impact of macroeconomic factors on the European travel and leisure sector: the context of Russo–Ukrainian war

IF 4.4 2区化学 Q2 MATERIALS SCIENCE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

ACS Applied Polymer Materials Pub Date : 2024-04-02 DOI:10.1108/tr-08-2023-0534

Muhammad Muddasir, Ana Pinto Borges, Elvira Vieira, B. Vieira

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Abstract

Purpose This study aims to address the macroeconomic factors effect on the travel and leisure (T&L) industry throughout Europe within the context of the Russo-Ukrainian war that have started on 24 February 2022. Specifically, top tourist destinations are analysed, such as Spain, France, Italy and Portugal, as well as Europe in general. Design/methodology/approach This study adopts the panel regression approach based on the data that is provided on a daily basis, and it covers a period of nearly 14 months, starting on 24 February 2022 and ending on 15 April 2023. Findings The findings indicate that the European T&L sector is impacted by macroeconomic variables. Namely, the T&L sector is significantly impacted by interest rates, geopolitical risk, oil and gas, whereas inflation has a muted effect, indicating a comparatively lesser influence on the dynamics of the industry. This research contributes to existing literature by providing one of the first quantitative analyses of how macroeconomic factors impact the European T&L business in the context of a geopolitical conflict. Research limitations/implications A study of the Russian–Ukrainian war may be limited by a number of research constraints. The continuing nature of the conflict, the lack of communication between the parties and potential political prejudice are some of these difficulties. Any research on the Russo-Ukrainian war should be done with these limits in mind. Practical implications Macroeconomic variables play a significant role on the T&L sector development; therefore, when designing resilience strategies, they need to be accounted for. Originality/value To the best of authors’ knowledge, this is one of the first studies to analyse how macroeconomic factors affected the European T&L business using a quantitative approach. The macroeconomic variables that were taken into account in this study included interest rates, inflation, oil and petrol prices, as well as the geopolitical risk index.

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宏观经济因素对欧洲旅游和休闲行业的影响：俄乌战争的背景

目的本研究旨在探讨在 2022 年 2 月 24 日俄乌战争爆发的背景下，宏观经济因素对整个欧洲旅游和休闲（T&L）行业的影响。具体而言，本研究分析了西班牙、法国、意大利和葡萄牙等顶级旅游目的地，以及整个欧洲。本研究采用基于每日提供的数据的面板回归方法，涵盖从 2022 年 2 月 24 日到 2023 年 4 月 15 日近 14 个月的时间。也就是说，贸易与物流业受利率、地缘政治风险、石油和天然气的影响较大，而通货膨胀的影响较小，表明其对行业动态的影响相对较小。本研究首次对地缘政治冲突背景下宏观经济因素如何影响欧洲贸易与物流业务进行了定量分析，为现有文献做出了贡献。研究局限/启示对俄乌战争的研究可能会受到一些研究限制。冲突的持续性、各方之间缺乏沟通以及潜在的政治偏见是其中的一些困难。任何有关俄乌战争的研究都应考虑到这些限制因素。宏观经济变量对贸易与物流行业的发展起着重要作用；因此，在设计弹性战略时，需要考虑到这些变量。原创性/价值据作者所知，这是使用定量方法分析宏观经济因素如何影响欧洲贸易与物流业务的首批研究之一。本研究考虑的宏观经济变量包括利率、通货膨胀、石油和汽油价格以及地缘政治风险指数。

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来源期刊

ACS Applied Polymer Materials Multiple-

CiteScore

7.20

自引率

6.00%

发文量

810

期刊介绍： ACS Applied Polymer Materials is an interdisciplinary journal publishing original research covering all aspects of engineering, chemistry, physics, and biology relevant to applications of polymers. The journal is devoted to reports of new and original experimental and theoretical research of an applied nature that integrates fundamental knowledge in the areas of materials, engineering, physics, bioscience, polymer science and chemistry into important polymer applications. The journal is specifically interested in work that addresses relationships among structure, processing, morphology, chemistry, properties, and function as well as work that provide insights into mechanisms critical to the performance of the polymer for applications.