Widespread warming of Earth's estuaries

Abstract

Water temperature responses to climate change may vary across Earth's estuaries. To understand how climate change influences estuarine surface water temperature, we need global, long-term records of estuarine temperature. Here, we generated surface water temperature data over 1060 estuaries globally using Landsat 5, 7, and 8 from 1985 to 2022 and compared water warming rates with local air temperature warming rates. Forty-seven percent of Earth's estuaries are warming, with a global average warming rate of 0.070 ± 0.004°C yr⁻¹ (median = 0.060°C yr⁻¹). Estuaries at higher latitudes showed rapid warming. A 1°C increase in air temperature could lead to a 0.81°C increase in estuarine surface water warming and 1.3°C increase in estuaries above 60.5°N. We inferred the potential influences over estuarine warming based on distinct global spatial patterns in water and air warming and discussed the effects of warming water temperature on estuarine metabolism and water quality.