Understanding the multi-source uncertainties effect on the seismic performance assessment of deeply hydraulic tunnels based on the generalized PDEM

Abstract

One crucial element of a seismic performance evaluation approach is to appropriately account for the stochastic characteristics of SGMs and the uncertainty associated with material properties. Furthermore, the incidence angle of seismic waves may be influenced by topographic and geological factors, leading to uncertainty and randomness. This variability in incident angles has the potential to cause unforeseen structural damage. However, the current seismic design code of underground structures has commonly assumed the vertical or horizontal seismic input method in underground engineering. From the uncertain point of view, the multi-source uncertainties that incorporate the nonstationary SMGs, seismic input angles, and material parameters utilized to conduct the seismic performance assessment of HTs remain a challenge in current seismic design and performance evaluation. To overcome this challenge, the Generalized F-discrepancy method, the generalized PDEM, and the equivalent extreme-value event are introduced to conduct stochastic dynamic analysis and develop the appropriate fragility curves of HTs considering the multi-source uncertainties. The results demonstrate that the probability of damage of the HT obtained by multi-source uncertainties is significantly different in analyzing the single uncertain and two uncertainties. Moreover, it can be concluded that the multi-source uncertainties can cause more seismic demand than the single uncertain and two uncertainties under different earthquake intensity levels for the HT. In light of this, it is strongly suggested that seismic design and performance assessment of HTs take into account the relevant aspects, such as the input angles, the random features of seismic waves, and the material parameters.