Risk of human leptospirosis in Colombia: spatiotemporal analysis and related hydroclimatic factors.

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2024-09-02 DOI:10.1093/trstmh/trae013

Juan José Montenegro-Idrogo, D Katterine Bonilla-Aldana, Alfonso J Rodríguez-Morales

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: Leptospirosis is an endemic zoonosis in tropical areas that is mainly related to rural activities; nevertheless, human leptospirosis (HL) outbreaks differ among regions. In Colombia, HL notifications are mandatory. Our objective was to determine the spatiotemporal distribution of HL in Colombia during 2007-2018 and its relationship with the main hydroclimatic variables.

Methods: We determined the estimated incidence and lethality of HL according to department and year. The Bayesian spatiotemporal analysis of an autoregressive model (STAR) model included HL cases and hydroclimatic factors (average temperature, rainfall and relative humidity) for quarterly periods.

Results: During the study period, 10 586 HL cases were registered (estimated incidence: 1.75 cases x 105) and 243 deaths by HL (lethality 2.3%). The STAR model found association of HL risk with temperature (RR:6.80; 95% CI 3.57 to 12.48) and space. Quindío and three other Amazonian departments (Guainía, Guaviare and Putumayo) had a positive relationship with a significant number of HL cases, adjusted for quarterly precipitation and humidity.

Conclusion: Spatial analysis showed a high risk of HL in departments of the western Andean Colombian regions. By contrast, in the spatiotemporal model, a higher HL risk was associated with temperature and departments of the North Colombian Amazon regions and Quindío in the Colombian Andean region.

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哥伦比亚人类钩端螺旋体病的风险：时空分析和相关水文气候因素。

背景：钩端螺旋体病是热带地区的一种地方性人畜共患病，主要与农村活动有关；然而，人类钩端螺旋体病（HL）的爆发因地区而异。在哥伦比亚，HL 的通报是强制性的。我们的目标是确定 2007-2018 年间哥伦比亚 HL 的时空分布及其与主要水文气候变量的关系：我们根据省份和年份确定了 HL 的估计发病率和致死率。自回归模型（STAR）贝叶斯时空分析模型包括每季度的 HL 病例和水文气候因素（平均气温、降雨量和相对湿度）：在研究期间，共登记了 10 586 例 HL（估计发病率：1.75 例 x 105），243 人死于 HL（致死率为 2.3%）。STAR 模型发现，HL 风险与温度（RR：6.80；95% CI 3.57 至 12.48）和空间有关。金迪奥和亚马逊地区的其他三个省（瓜伊尼亚省、瓜维亚雷省和普图马约省）与大量HL病例呈正相关，并对季度降水量和湿度进行了调整：空间分析表明，哥伦比亚西部安第斯地区各省罹患 HL 的风险较高。相比之下，在时空模型中，哥伦比亚亚马孙河北部地区和哥伦比亚安第斯地区金迪奥省的气温和HL风险较高。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.