Strengthened Combined Impact of the Pacific and Atlantic Meridional Modes on Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones since the 1990s

IF 4.8 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Qi Sun, Haikun Zhao, Philip J. Klotzbach, Xiang Han, Jun Gao, Jin Wu, Zhanhong Ma
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Abstract

Abstract There has been increased focus in recent years on the impact of the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) and the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) on weather and climate events. This study shows an increased synergistic impact of both the PMM and AMM on eastern North Pacific (ENP) extended boreal summer (June-November) tropical cyclone frequency (TCF) since the 1990s. This increase in the combined impact of both the PMM and AMM on ENP TCF is mainly due to a stronger modulation of the AMM on TCF since the early 1990s and of a stronger modulation of the PMM on TCF since the late 1990s. A budget analysis of the genesis potential index highlights the important contribution of changes in vertical wind shear to the recent strengthened AMM-TCF relationship, while potential intensity and vertical wind shear are the two most important drivers of the recent increase in the PMM-TCF relationship. This intensified association is largely explained by changes in the mean state of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic associated with the Atlantic Muit-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and trade wind magnitude in the subtropical Pacific Ocean associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This study highlights an asymmetric effect of the AMO and PDO on these two meridional modes and ENP TC genesis frequency and provides a better understanding of ENP TC activity on interannual-to-decadal time scales.
20 世纪 90 年代以来太平洋和大西洋经向模式对北太平洋东部热带气旋的综合影响增强
摘要 近年来,人们越来越关注太平洋经向模式(PMM)和大西洋经向模式(AMM)对天气和气候事件的影响。本研究表明,自 20 世纪 90 年代以来,太平洋经向模式和大西洋经向模式对北太平洋东部夏季(6 月-11 月)热带气旋频率(TCF)的协同影响有所增加。PMM 和 AMM 对 ENP 热带气旋频率综合影响的增加,主要是由于自 20 世纪 90 年代初以来 AMM 对热带气旋频率的调制作用更强,以及自 20 世纪 90 年代末以来 PMM 对热带气旋频率的调制作用更强。对成因位势指数的预算分析突出表明,垂直风切变的变化对近期加强的 AMM-TCF 关系起了重要作用,而位势强度和垂直风切变是近期 PMM-TCF 关系加强的两个最重要的驱动因素。这种关系的加强在很大程度上是由于与大西洋十年涛动(AMO)相关的热带大西洋海面温度平均状态的变化和与太平洋十年涛动(PDO)相关的亚热带太平洋信风幅度的变化造成的。这项研究强调了大西洋涛动和太平洋十年涛动对这两种经向模式和 ENP 热带气旋生成频率的不对称影响,有助于更好地了解 ENP 热带气旋在年际至十年时间尺度上的活动。
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来源期刊
Journal of Climate
Journal of Climate 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
9.30
自引率
14.30%
发文量
490
审稿时长
7.5 months
期刊介绍: The Journal of Climate (JCLI) (ISSN: 0894-8755; eISSN: 1520-0442) publishes research that advances basic understanding of the dynamics and physics of the climate system on large spatial scales, including variability of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and cryosphere; past, present, and projected future changes in the climate system; and climate simulation and prediction.
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