Drought risk assessment for early maize growth in Northeast China based on a reconstructed phenological dataset

Abstract

Drought is one of the meteorological disasters to which maize is most vulnerable during its seedling stage in Northeast China. The absence of phenological data impedes the precise evaluation of the likelihood of drought during this phase. In response to these issues, this study develops a phenology model and reconstructing the data. Furthermore, it effectively assessed drought risk at the site scale by utilizing drought indicators. Using reconstructed phenological data from 217 sites from 1981 to 2015, we analysed the duration and trends of each phenological period and assessed the spatial and temporal distribution of drought frequency at each growth stage. The study demonstrated that the average date ranges for the sowing, emergence, three-leaf, and seven-leaf stages annually were 115–138 days, 130–151 days, 135–160 days, and 150–180 days, respectively. Additionally, there was a significant trend towards earlier dates in all phenological stages. Our research reveals notable fluctuations in drought frequency during various growth stages of early maize in Northeast China. Particularly, the period from the three-leaf to the seven-leaf stages emerges as the most drought-prone, while the initial emergence to three-leaf stage also shows considerable vulnerability. On average, the frequency of drought events during the critical three- to seven-leaf stage stands at 35%. This average is surpassed in regions like Heilongjiang, northwest Jilin, northern Inner Mongolia, and southwest Liaoning, indicating a heightened risk in these areas. The early maize growth stage drought types are mainly light and moderate drought, with the three-leaf to seven-leaf stage, and Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia, as the key stages and regions of concern, respectively. Identifying the principal types of drought and their occurrence in distinct regions and growth stages is pivotal for averting and reducing disasters.