Risk factors associated with heatwave mortality in Chinese adults over 65 years

Abstract

Aging populations are susceptible to heat-related mortality because of physiological factors and comorbidities. However, the understanding of individual vulnerabilities in the aging population is incomplete. In the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey, we assessed daily heatwave exposure individually for 13,527 participants (median age = 89 years) and 3,249 summer mortalities during follow-up from 2008 to 2018. The mortality risk during heatwave days according to relative temperature is approximately doubled (hazard ratio (HR) range = 1.78–1.98). We found that heatwave mortality risks were increased for individuals with functional declines in mobility (HR range = 2.32–3.20), dependency in activities of daily living (HR range = 2.22–3.27), cognitive impairment (HR = 2.22) and social isolation reflected by having nobody to ask for help during difficulties (HR range = 2.14–10.21). Contrary to current understanding, older age was not predictive of heatwave mortality risk after accounting for individual functional declines; no statistical differences were detected according to sex. Beyond age as a risk factor, our findings emphasize that functional aging is an underlying factor in enhancing heatwave resilience. Assessment of functional decline and implementing care strategies are crucial for targeted prevention of mortality during heatwaves. In a prospective cohort of Chinese participants aged 65 years and older, heatwaves doubled the risk of mortality, especially in adults with functional impairments and dependency on daily living activities.