Beware the performance of an algorithm before relying on it: Evidence from a stock price forecasting experiment

IF 2.5 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
Tiffany Tsz Kwan Tse , Nobuyuki Hanaki , Bolin Mao
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

We experimentally investigated the relationship between participants’ reliance on algorithms, their familiarity with the task, and the performance level of the algorithm. We found that when participants were given the freedom to submit any number as their final forecast after observing the one produced by the algorithm (a condition found to mitigate algorithm aversion), the average degree of reliance on high and low performing algorithms did not significantly differ when there was no practice stage. Participants relied less on the algorithm when there was practice stage, regardless of its performance level. The reliance on the low performing algorithm was positive even when participants could infer that they outperformed the algorithm. Indeed, participants would have done better without relying on the low performing algorithm at all. Our results suggest that, at least in some domains, excessive reliance on algorithms, rather than algorithm aversion, should be a concern.

在依赖算法之前,要小心其性能:股票价格预测实验的证据
我们通过实验研究了参与者对算法的依赖程度、他们对任务的熟悉程度以及算法的性能水平之间的关系。我们发现,如果让参与者在观察算法生成的数字后自由提交任何数字作为他们的最终预测(这一条件被认为可以减轻算法厌恶),那么在没有练习阶段,参与者对高分算法和低分算法的平均依赖程度没有显著差异。有练习阶段时,无论算法的性能水平如何,参与者对算法的依赖程度都较低。即使参与者能推断出自己的成绩优于算法,他们对成绩差的算法的依赖程度也是积极的。事实上,如果不依赖表现较差的算法,参与者的表现会更好。我们的研究结果表明,至少在某些领域,过度依赖算法而不是算法厌恶应该引起关注。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.20
自引率
31.40%
发文量
69
审稿时长
63 days
期刊介绍: The Journal aims to present research that will improve understanding of behavioral, in particular psychological, aspects of economic phenomena and processes. The Journal seeks to be a channel for the increased interest in using behavioral science methods for the study of economic behavior, and so to contribute to better solutions of societal problems, by stimulating new approaches and new theorizing about economic affairs. Economic psychology as a discipline studies the psychological mechanisms that underlie economic behavior. It deals with preferences, judgments, choices, economic interaction, and factors influencing these, as well as the consequences of judgements and decisions for economic processes and phenomena. This includes the impact of economic institutions upon human behavior and well-being. Studies in economic psychology may relate to different levels of aggregation, from the household and the individual consumer to the macro level of whole nations. Economic behavior in connection with inflation, unemployment, taxation, economic development, as well as consumer information and economic behavior in the market place are thus among the fields of interest. The journal also encourages submissions dealing with social interaction in economic contexts, like bargaining, negotiation, or group decision-making. The Journal of Economic Psychology contains: (a) novel reports of empirical (including: experimental) research on economic behavior; (b) replications studies; (c) assessments of the state of the art in economic psychology; (d) articles providing a theoretical perspective or a frame of reference for the study of economic behavior; (e) articles explaining the implications of theoretical developments for practical applications; (f) book reviews; (g) announcements of meetings, conferences and seminars.
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