The economic burden of road traffic accidents and injuries: A small island perspective

IF 4.3 Q2 TRANSPORTATION

International Journal of Transportation Science and Technology Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI:10.1016/j.ijtst.2024.03.002

Verena Tandrayen-Ragoobur

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Abstract

The existing evidence on the economic burden of road accidents on gross domestic product (GDP) focused mainly on developed countries. This paper addresses an important gap in the literature by investigating into the impacts of road traffic accidents and injuries on GDP in the small island of Mauritius. Mauritius, having perceived an important structural transformation over the past decades, is witnessing a rise in road accidents and injuries, which is a concern in terms of economic costs. In addition, it is a small island nation with limited road infrastructure, making it vulnerable to traffic congestion and accidents. The paper provides important insights for other island countries with similar geographic challenges. The Vector error correction model (VECM) approach is used to assessing the existence of a long-run relationship between road traffic accidents and GDP in Mauritius from 1980 to 2020. In addition to road crashes, different levels of injury severity linked to road accidents are evaluated. The results reveal that on average a 1% rise in road accidents leads to a 0.42% fall in real GDP. Further, a 1% rise in casualties linked to road accidents is likely to cause a 0.18% decline in GDP. Although a long-run relationship is established, there is no statistically significant influence of road accidents on GDP in the short-run.

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道路交通事故和伤害的经济负担：小岛屿视角

关于道路事故对国内生产总值的经济负担的现有证据主要集中在发达国家。本文通过调查道路交通事故和伤害对毛里求斯小岛国内生产总值的影响，解决了文献中的一个重要差距。毛里求斯在过去几十年中经历了重要的结构转变，但它正在目睹道路事故和伤害的增加，这在经济成本方面令人关切。此外，它是一个小岛屿国家，道路基础设施有限，使其容易受到交通拥堵和事故的影响。本文为其他面临类似地理挑战的岛国提供了重要的见解。矢量误差修正模型（VECM）方法用于评估毛里求斯1980年至2020年道路交通事故与GDP之间存在的长期关系。除了道路交通事故外，还评估了与道路交通事故有关的不同程度的伤害严重程度。结果显示，道路交通事故平均上升1%，实际GDP就会下降0.42%。此外，与交通事故相关的伤亡人数每增加1%，就可能导致GDP下降0.18%。虽然建立了长期的关系，但在短期内，道路交通事故对GDP的影响在统计上并不显著。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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