{"title":"Climate change and hydropower resilience in Nepal: an integrated modeling approach in the Madi River Basin","authors":"Pragya Pokharel, R. K. Regmi","doi":"10.2166/h2oj.2024.110","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\n \n Responding to Nepal's hydropower sector's vulnerability to climate change, this study investigates its impact on energy security, focusing on the Madi River Basin's snow-fed river systems. This study conducted a rigorous analysis of the basin's historical and future hydroclimatic trends, using the linear scaling method to evaluate and correct inherent biases in 13 GCMs, resulting in the selection of 6 BCMs with above-satisfactory performance. Future projections reveal an increase in annual precipitation across all timeframes with a higher increment in SSP585 by the end of the century, and a temperature rise ranging from 1.8 to 3.5 °C from the baseline in the far future under moderate- to high-emission scenarios. These hydroclimatic projections are then forced into the calibrated soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model with very good performance (both R2 and NSE greater than 0.8). The streamflow projection demonstrates an overall increasing trend, marked by significant flow reduction in early months and pronounced monsoon peaks. The analysis of three distinct hydropower projects reveals unique challenges and opportunities, underscoring the heterogeneous nature of projects and the need for location-specific planning and strategic management. This study provides crucial insights for sustainable development in renewable energy, laying the foundation for future research and policy in similar hydroclimatic settings.","PeriodicalId":1,"journal":{"name":"Accounts of Chemical Research","volume":"245 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":16.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Accounts of Chemical Research","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2166/h2oj.2024.110","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"化学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Responding to Nepal's hydropower sector's vulnerability to climate change, this study investigates its impact on energy security, focusing on the Madi River Basin's snow-fed river systems. This study conducted a rigorous analysis of the basin's historical and future hydroclimatic trends, using the linear scaling method to evaluate and correct inherent biases in 13 GCMs, resulting in the selection of 6 BCMs with above-satisfactory performance. Future projections reveal an increase in annual precipitation across all timeframes with a higher increment in SSP585 by the end of the century, and a temperature rise ranging from 1.8 to 3.5 °C from the baseline in the far future under moderate- to high-emission scenarios. These hydroclimatic projections are then forced into the calibrated soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model with very good performance (both R2 and NSE greater than 0.8). The streamflow projection demonstrates an overall increasing trend, marked by significant flow reduction in early months and pronounced monsoon peaks. The analysis of three distinct hydropower projects reveals unique challenges and opportunities, underscoring the heterogeneous nature of projects and the need for location-specific planning and strategic management. This study provides crucial insights for sustainable development in renewable energy, laying the foundation for future research and policy in similar hydroclimatic settings.
期刊介绍:
Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance.
Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.