Heating and cooling degree-days vs climate change in years 1979-2021. Evidence from the European Union and Norway

Abstract

Energy consumption depends strongly on weather conditions. Thus, to formulate energy-related policy goals, it is crucial to monitor changes related to the heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) – widely applied indicators of climate change. The study investigated the impact that climate change (global warming) exerted on the number of HDD and CDD, as well as the weather-related final energy consumption of the European households (EU-27 and Norway), based on data derived from Eurostat for the period 1979-2021. The results indicate that the changes in HDD and CDD constituted non-linear functions of the country’s average temperature, with the largest percentage changes observed in the warmest (in the case of HDD) and the coldest (in the case of CDD) portion of European countries. As indicated by estimations based on first-difference linear regression models, climate change has contributed so far to the net decrease in weather-related energy consumption of households.