The self-organized criticality and periodicity of temporal sequences of earthquakes

IF 1.6 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS
Yoshiaki Ida
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

A new cellular automaton model is developed to examine the nature of temporal sequences of earthquakes. The model takes the space dependence of fault strength into account and assumes that an earthquake produces a continuous area with the stress dropped to zero. In the model, viscous slip is also introduced on the fault and earthquakes are realizable only when the stress accumulates faster than the viscous relaxation. The analysis reveals that the sequences of earthquakes generally satisfy the power law relation between the intensity and frequency of earthquakes so that earthquakes may be in the state of self-organized criticality. On the other hand, periodicity appears in some sequences that consist of the groups of high seismic activity repeated between calm intervals with an almost constant period. Therefore, self-organized criticality and periodicity coexist in these sequences and the claim that earthquakes are unpredictable because of self-organized criticality may be inadequate.

Abstract Image

Abstract Image

地震时序的自组织临界性和周期性
为研究地震时间序列的性质,开发了一种新的细胞自动机模型。该模型考虑了断层强度的空间依赖性,并假定地震会产生一个应力降为零的连续区域。在该模型中,断层上还引入了粘性滑移,只有当应力累积速度快于粘性松弛速度时,地震才会发生。分析表明,地震序列一般满足地震强度和频率之间的幂律关系,因此地震可能处于自组织临界状态。另一方面,在一些序列中出现了周期性,这些序列由在周期几乎恒定的平静间隔之间重复出现的高地震活动群组成。因此,在这些序列中,自组织临界性和周期性是共存的,而认为地震不可预测是因为自组织临界性的说法可能是不充分的。
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来源期刊
Journal of Seismology
Journal of Seismology 地学-地球化学与地球物理
CiteScore
3.30
自引率
6.20%
发文量
67
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: Journal of Seismology is an international journal specialising in all observational and theoretical aspects related to earthquake occurrence. Research topics may cover: seismotectonics, seismicity, historical seismicity, seismic source physics, strong ground motion studies, seismic hazard or risk, engineering seismology, physics of fault systems, triggered and induced seismicity, mining seismology, volcano seismology, earthquake prediction, structural investigations ranging from local to regional and global studies with a particular focus on passive experiments.
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