Global sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification for design parameters of shallow geothermal systems

IF 2.9 2区 地球科学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS
Simon Richter, Katrin Lubashevsky, Jakob Randow, Steve Henker, Jörg Buchwald, Anke Bucher
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Abstract

To improve the design process of geothermal systems, it is important to know which design parameters particularly affect the performance of the system. This article presents investigations on design parameters for borehole heat exchangers in the shallow subsurface. The study is based on numerical simulations with one double U-tube borehole heat exchanger and approximated models obtained using machine learning. As a result of the global sensitivity analysis, relevant parameters are identified and their respective influence on the performance of a borehole heat exchanger is compared. For example, according to this analysis, the three parameters with the highest sensitivity are the initial temperature, the heat demand and the share of the borehole heat exchanger that is surrounded by groundwater flow. Finally, the effects of uncertainties in the parameters identified as relevant for the design of a borehole heat exchanger are considered in an uncertainty quantification for a fictitious site. Uncertainties for regulatory compliance with respect to temperature limits as well as a large probability of oversizing the system were identified for the considered example. The results of the exemplary uncertainty quantification indicate that it has the potential to be a useful tool for planning practice.

浅层地热系统设计参数的全球敏感性分析和不确定性量化
为了改进地热系统的设计过程,了解哪些设计参数会特别影响系统的性能非常重要。本文介绍了对浅层地下钻孔热交换器设计参数的研究。该研究基于一个双 U 型管井眼热交换器的数值模拟和利用机器学习获得的近似模型。通过全局敏感性分析,确定了相关参数,并比较了它们各自对井眼热交换器性能的影响。例如,根据该分析,敏感度最高的三个参数是初始温度、热需求和地下水流环绕井眼热交换器的比例。最后,在对一个虚构地点进行不确定性量化时,考虑了已确定的与钻孔换热器设计相关的参数的不确定性的影响。在所考虑的示例中,确定了与温度限制相关的合规性不确定性以及系统过大的可能性。示范性不确定性量化的结果表明,它有可能成为规划实践中的有用工具。
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来源期刊
Geothermal Energy
Geothermal Energy Earth and Planetary Sciences-Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology
CiteScore
5.90
自引率
7.10%
发文量
25
审稿时长
8 weeks
期刊介绍: Geothermal Energy is a peer-reviewed fully open access journal published under the SpringerOpen brand. It focuses on fundamental and applied research needed to deploy technologies for developing and integrating geothermal energy as one key element in the future energy portfolio. Contributions include geological, geophysical, and geochemical studies; exploration of geothermal fields; reservoir characterization and modeling; development of productivity-enhancing methods; and approaches to achieve robust and economic plant operation. Geothermal Energy serves to examine the interaction of individual system components while taking the whole process into account, from the development of the reservoir to the economic provision of geothermal energy.
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