An integrated multi-resolution framework for jointly estimating crash type and crash severity

IF 12.5 1区 工程技术 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
Shahrior Pervaz , Tanmoy Bhowmik , Naveen Eluru
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The current research effort contributes to safety literature by developing an integrated framework that allows for the influence of independent variables from crash type and severity components at the disaggregate level to be incorporated within the aggregate level propensity to estimate crash frequency by crash type and severity. The empirical analysis is based on the crash data drawn from the city of Orlando, Florida for the year 2019. The disaggregate level analysis uses 15,518 crash records of three crash types including rear end, angular and sideswipe. Each crash record contains crash specific factors, driver and vehicle factors, roadway attributes, road environmental and weather information. For aggregate level model analysis, the study aggregates the crash records by crash type over 300 traffic analysis zones. An exhaustive set of independent variables including roadway and traffic characteristics, land-use attributes, built environment and sociodemographic factors are considered in this level. The empirical analysis is further augmented by employing several goodness of fit and predictive measures. A validation exercise is also conducted using a holdout sample to highlight the superiority of the proposed integrated model relative to the non-integrated model system. The proposed framework can also incorporate unobserved heterogeneity in the model system. The findings of the study indicate that the proposed framework is advantageous for capturing the variable effects simultaneously across the aggregate and disaggregate levels.

联合估算碰撞类型和碰撞严重程度的多分辨率综合框架
当前的研究工作为安全文献做出了贡献,它开发了一个综合框架,允许将碰撞类型和严重程度组成部分的自变量在分类层面的影响纳入总体层面的倾向性中,从而按碰撞类型和严重程度估算碰撞频率。实证分析基于佛罗里达州奥兰多市 2019 年的碰撞数据。分类分析使用了 15,518 条碰撞记录,包括追尾、角度和侧擦三种碰撞类型。每条碰撞记录都包含碰撞特定因素、驾驶员和车辆因素、道路属性、道路环境和天气信息。为了进行总体模型分析,该研究按碰撞类型汇总了 300 个交通分析区的碰撞记录。在这一层面,考虑了一套详尽的自变量,包括道路和交通特征、土地使用属性、建筑环境和社会人口因素。通过采用多种拟合度和预测性测量方法,进一步加强了实证分析。此外,还利用保留样本进行了验证,以突出所提议的综合模型相对于非综合模型系统的优越性。拟议框架还可将未观察到的异质性纳入模型系统。研究结果表明,拟议框架在同时捕捉总体和分类层面的变量效应方面具有优势。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
22.10
自引率
34.10%
发文量
35
审稿时长
24 days
期刊介绍: Analytic Methods in Accident Research is a journal that publishes articles related to the development and application of advanced statistical and econometric methods in studying vehicle crashes and other accidents. The journal aims to demonstrate how these innovative approaches can provide new insights into the factors influencing the occurrence and severity of accidents, thereby offering guidance for implementing appropriate preventive measures. While the journal primarily focuses on the analytic approach, it also accepts articles covering various aspects of transportation safety (such as road, pedestrian, air, rail, and water safety), construction safety, and other areas where human behavior, machine failures, or system failures lead to property damage or bodily harm.
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