Francois Stephan, Mathilde Facque, Fares Ben Salem, Olivia Picq, Audrey Imbert, Thibaut Genty, Marc Zins
{"title":"Probabilistic Prediction of Gastrointestinal Ischemia after Cardiothoracic Surgery.","authors":"Francois Stephan, Mathilde Facque, Fares Ben Salem, Olivia Picq, Audrey Imbert, Thibaut Genty, Marc Zins","doi":"10.1055/a-2292-0247","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong> Gastrointestinal ischemia (GIisch) is challenging to diagnose in patients after cardiothoracic surgery. Computed tomography angiography (CTA) carries substantial false-negative and false-positive rates. The aim of the study was to evaluate if a combination of readily available variables improves the diagnosis of GIisch after cardiothoracic surgery.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong> This retrospective study included patients receiving intensive care after cardiothoracic surgery. GIisch was confirmed by surgical and/or endoscopic findings. A GIisch prediction score was developed using the Spiegelhalter-Knill-Jones system in a training cohort then tested in a validation cohort (patients without obvious signs of GIisch on CTA).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong> The training cohort comprised 125 consecutive patients with suspected GIisch in 2008 to 2019, including 85 with confirmed GIisch. CTA, performed in 92 patients, had a high false-negative rate of 17/60 (28%) and a lower false-positive rate of 7/32 (22%). The score included cardiopulmonary bypass, negatively associated with GIisch, and six variables positively associated with GIisch: intraoperative mean arterial pressure < 50 mm Hg, aspartate aminotransferase > 15 N, lactate increase in 24 hour > 20%, and 3 CTA findings, namely, bowel dilation, bowel wall thickening, and mesenteric vasoconstriction. The area under the receiver operating characteristic was 0.82 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.51-0.93) in the training cohort and 0.82 (95% CI, 0.68-0.96) in the validation cohort (<i>n</i> = 34 patients). Reliability of the predicted probabilities was greatest for probabilities ≤ 30% or ≥ 70%.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong> In patients receiving intensive care after cardiothoracic surgery, GIisch cannot be ruled out based solely on CTA findings. A scoring system combining CTA findings with other variables may improve the diagnosis of GIisch in this population.</p>","PeriodicalId":23057,"journal":{"name":"Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgeon","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgeon","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1055/a-2292-0247","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2024/3/21 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"CARDIAC & CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Background: Gastrointestinal ischemia (GIisch) is challenging to diagnose in patients after cardiothoracic surgery. Computed tomography angiography (CTA) carries substantial false-negative and false-positive rates. The aim of the study was to evaluate if a combination of readily available variables improves the diagnosis of GIisch after cardiothoracic surgery.
Methods: This retrospective study included patients receiving intensive care after cardiothoracic surgery. GIisch was confirmed by surgical and/or endoscopic findings. A GIisch prediction score was developed using the Spiegelhalter-Knill-Jones system in a training cohort then tested in a validation cohort (patients without obvious signs of GIisch on CTA).
Results: The training cohort comprised 125 consecutive patients with suspected GIisch in 2008 to 2019, including 85 with confirmed GIisch. CTA, performed in 92 patients, had a high false-negative rate of 17/60 (28%) and a lower false-positive rate of 7/32 (22%). The score included cardiopulmonary bypass, negatively associated with GIisch, and six variables positively associated with GIisch: intraoperative mean arterial pressure < 50 mm Hg, aspartate aminotransferase > 15 N, lactate increase in 24 hour > 20%, and 3 CTA findings, namely, bowel dilation, bowel wall thickening, and mesenteric vasoconstriction. The area under the receiver operating characteristic was 0.82 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.51-0.93) in the training cohort and 0.82 (95% CI, 0.68-0.96) in the validation cohort (n = 34 patients). Reliability of the predicted probabilities was greatest for probabilities ≤ 30% or ≥ 70%.
Conclusion: In patients receiving intensive care after cardiothoracic surgery, GIisch cannot be ruled out based solely on CTA findings. A scoring system combining CTA findings with other variables may improve the diagnosis of GIisch in this population.
期刊介绍:
The Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgeon publishes articles of the highest standard from internationally recognized thoracic and cardiovascular surgeons, cardiologists, anesthesiologists, physiologists, and pathologists. This journal is an essential resource for anyone working in this field.
Original articles, short communications, reviews and important meeting announcements keep you abreast of key clinical advances, as well as providing the theoretical background of cardiovascular and thoracic surgery. Case reports are published in our Open Access companion journal The Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgeon Reports.