Assessment of length-of-day and universal time predictions based on the results of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign

IF 3.9 2区地球科学 Q1 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS

Journal of Geodesy Pub Date : 2024-03-20 DOI:10.1007/s00190-024-01824-7

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Predicting Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) is crucial for precise positioning and navigation both on the Earth’s surface and in space. In recent years, many approaches have been developed to forecast EOP, incorporating observed EOP as well as information on the effective angular momentum (EAM) derived from numerical models of the atmosphere, oceans, and land-surface dynamics. The Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC) aimed to comprehensively evaluate EOP forecasts from many international participants and identify the most promising prediction methodologies. This paper presents the validation results of predictions for universal time and length-of-day variations submitted during the 2nd EOP PCC, providing an assessment of their accuracy and reliability. We conduct a detailed evaluation of all valid forecasts using the IERS 14 C04 solution provided by the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) as a reference and mean absolute error as the quality measure. Our analysis demonstrates that approaches based on machine learning or the combination of least squares and autoregression, with the use of EAM information as an additional input, provide the highest prediction accuracy for both investigated parameters. Utilizing precise EAM data and forecasts emerges as a pivotal factor in enhancing forecasting accuracy. Although several methods show some potential to outperform the IERS forecasts, the current standard predictions disseminated by IERS are highly reliable and can be fully recommended for operational purposes.

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根据第二次地球方位参数预测比较活动的结果对日长和世界时预测进行评估

摘要预测地球方位参数（EOP）对于在地球表面和太空中精确定位和导航至关重要。近年来，人们开发了许多方法来预测地球定向参数，其中包括观测到的地球定向参数以及从大气、海洋和陆地表面动力学数值模型中获得的有效角动量（EAM）信息。第二次地球方位参数预测比较活动（2nd EOP PCC）旨在全面评估来自众多国际参与者的 EOP 预测，并确定最有前途的预测方法。本文介绍了第二次 EOP PCC 期间提交的全球时间和日长变化预测的验证结果，对其准确性和可靠性进行了评估。我们以国际地球自转和参考系统服务机构（IERS）提供的 IERS 14 C04 解决方案为参考，以平均绝对误差为质量衡量标准，对所有有效预测进行了详细评估。我们的分析表明，基于机器学习或最小二乘法与自回归相结合的方法，并使用地球同步测量和参照系统信息作为额外输入，可为两个调查参数提供最高的预测精度。利用精确的 EAM 数据和预测是提高预测准确性的关键因素。尽管有几种方法显示有可能超过国际地球资源卫星的预测，但国际地球资源卫星目前发布的标准预测非常可靠，完全可以推荐用于业务目的。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Geodesy 地学-地球化学与地球物理

CiteScore

8.60

自引率

9.10%

发文量

审稿时长

9 months

期刊介绍： The Journal of Geodesy is an international journal concerned with the study of scientific problems of geodesy and related interdisciplinary sciences. Peer-reviewed papers are published on theoretical or modeling studies, and on results of experiments and interpretations. Besides original research papers, the journal includes commissioned review papers on topical subjects and special issues arising from chosen scientific symposia or workshops. The journal covers the whole range of geodetic science and reports on theoretical and applied studies in research areas such as: -Positioning -Reference frame -Geodetic networks -Modeling and quality control -Space geodesy -Remote sensing -Gravity fields -Geodynamics