Understanding climate change dynamics in the Godavari middle sub-basin using parametric and non-parametric models

Abstract

Climate change is considered a long-term change in precipitation, temperature and other meteorological variables. The pattern of meteorological variables is changing due to anthropogenic activities globally. Climate change has posed threat to natural and human systems. Thus, assessing and forecasting climate variability have become imperative for making resources sustainable and society resilient. This study examined trend and forecasted climate change using parametric and non-parametric methods in the Godavari Middle Sub-basin, India. Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope methods were utilized to analyze trend and magnitude of meteorological variables such as rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature, mean wind speed, mean evaporation and relative humidity. Forecasting of meteorological variables was carried out using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models. Increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperature was observed at various level of significance. Decreasing trend was observed in mean evaporation at 0.05 level of significance. Decreasing trend in wind speed was also recorded in the sub-basin. February, March, April, June, October and December have shown increasing trend in relative humidity. Total monthly rainfall has shown decreasing trend in the south-eastern part of the sub-basin. Forecast of meteorological variables have also shown decrease in rainfall, increase in maximum and minimum temperature during 2017–2027 creating the sub-basin more prone to dry climate condition. Thus, a policy intervention-oriented climate action plan for lessening the impact of climate change is required in the sub-basin.