{"title":"Housing Affordability Crisis and Delayed Fertility: Evidence from the USA","authors":"Irakli Japaridze, Nagham Sayour","doi":"10.1007/s11113-024-09865-8","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper studies the relationship between homeownership and completed fertility. We hypothesize that homeownership unaffordability decreases completed fertility by delaying the start of childbearing, thus, increasing the mother’s age at first birth. Applying a Cox Proportional Hazard model on the 2000 US Census and the 2015–2019 Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we show that renters delay childbearing relative to homeowners. Using the same methodology and the 2000 US Census, we find that renters in relatively unaffordable real estate markets delay the start of childbearing more than those in more affordable ones. Lastly, we use the 1990 US Census and an Ordinary Least-Squares regression, to show that women’s age at first birth is negatively associated with completed fertility. These results provide evidence that the lack of affordable (owned) housing delays the start of childbearing which reduces completed fertility. Thus, even temporary housing unaffordability, especially difficulty to transition to homeownership, might have long-lasting effects on the age pyramid.</p>","PeriodicalId":47633,"journal":{"name":"Population Research and Policy Review","volume":"112 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Population Research and Policy Review","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-024-09865-8","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"DEMOGRAPHY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This paper studies the relationship between homeownership and completed fertility. We hypothesize that homeownership unaffordability decreases completed fertility by delaying the start of childbearing, thus, increasing the mother’s age at first birth. Applying a Cox Proportional Hazard model on the 2000 US Census and the 2015–2019 Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we show that renters delay childbearing relative to homeowners. Using the same methodology and the 2000 US Census, we find that renters in relatively unaffordable real estate markets delay the start of childbearing more than those in more affordable ones. Lastly, we use the 1990 US Census and an Ordinary Least-Squares regression, to show that women’s age at first birth is negatively associated with completed fertility. These results provide evidence that the lack of affordable (owned) housing delays the start of childbearing which reduces completed fertility. Thus, even temporary housing unaffordability, especially difficulty to transition to homeownership, might have long-lasting effects on the age pyramid.
期刊介绍：
Now accepted in JSTOR! Population Research and Policy Review has a twofold goal: it provides a convenient source for government officials and scholars in which they can learn about the policy implications of recent research relevant to the causes and consequences of changing population size and composition; and it provides a broad, interdisciplinary coverage of population research.
Population Research and Policy Review seeks to publish quality material of interest to professionals working in the fields of population, and those fields which intersect and overlap with population studies. The publication includes demographic, economic, social, political and health research papers and related contributions which are based on either the direct scientific evaluation of particular policies or programs, or general contributions intended to advance knowledge that informs policy and program development.
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