Cross-regional economic impact of carbon emission regulations: A quantitative spatial equilibrium model for China

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Pub Date : 2024-03-14 DOI:10.1016/j.strueco.2024.03.001

Dongxu Chen , Yin Huang , Nairong Tan , Tao Hong , Tao Ma

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Abstract

We develop and quantitatively evaluate a spatial general equilibrium model that incorporates carbon emission regulations. We study the impact of emission regulation on the economies of regions within a country under climate change mitigation goals, and how the impact of emission regulation in one region influences other regions through regional‒sectoral linkages. The model is calibrated using Chinese regional and sectoral data, and several counterfactual exercises are performed. The results indicate that undifferentiated increases in emission regulation across regions have resulted in inter-regional differences in real GDP changes; however, “equity-oriented” regionally differentiated emissions regulations reduce this imbalance. Regarding interactions between regions, negative impacts on the economy are characterized by geographical proximity, whereas positive impacts are not geographically constrained. Sectoral linkages exacerbate the negative economic impacts of emission regulations and widen regional disparities. Additionally, we demonstrate the extended application of our model through two case studies.

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碳排放法规的跨区域经济影响：中国的定量空间均衡模型

我们建立并定量评估了一个包含碳排放法规的空间一般均衡模型。我们研究了在气候变化减缓目标下，排放法规对国内各地区经济的影响，以及一个地区的排放法规如何通过地区-部门联系影响其他地区。利用中国的地区和部门数据对模型进行了校准，并进行了若干反事实演练。结果表明，各地区无差别地增加排放监管导致了地区间实际 GDP 变化的差异；然而，"公平导向 "的地区差异化排放监管减少了这种不平衡。关于区域间的互动，对经济的负面影响以地理上的邻近性为特征，而正面影响则不受地理限制。部门联系加剧了排放法规对经济的负面影响，并扩大了地区差距。此外，我们还通过两个案例研究展示了我们模型的扩展应用。

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来源期刊

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

9.60

自引率

4.90%

发文量

159

期刊介绍： Structural Change and Economic Dynamics publishes articles about theoretical, applied and methodological aspects of structural change in economic systems. The journal publishes work analysing dynamics and structural breaks in economic, technological, behavioural and institutional patterns.