Development and validation of a prediction model for hyperuricemia risk in hypertensive patients.

Abstract

Objective: This study aimed to create a predictive model for hyperuricemia (HUA) in patients diagnosed with hypertension and evaluate its predictive accuracy.

Methods: Employing a retrospective cohort design, this study investigated HUA incidence and clinical data among 228 patients with essential hypertension selected from the Department of Cardiology at a tertiary A-level hospital in Anhui Province, China, between January 2018 and June 2021. The patients were divided randomly into a training group (168 cases) and a validation group (60 cases) at a 7:3 ratio. The training group underwent univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses to identify risk factors for HUA. Additionally, an R software-generated nomogram model estimated HUA risk in hypertensive patients. The validation group assessed the nomogram model's discriminatory power and calibration using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test.

Results: The study found a 29.39% prevalence of HUA among the 228 participants. Logistic regression analyses identified age, body mass index, and concomitant coronary heart disease as independent HUA risk factors (odds ratio [OR] > 1 and P < 0.05). Conversely, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol emerged as an independent protective factor against HUA in hypertensive patients (OR < 1 and P < 0.05). Using these factors, a nomogram model was constructed to assess HUA risk, with an AUC of 0.873 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.818-0.928) in the training group and 0.841 (95% CI: 0.735-0.946) in the validation group, indicating a strong discriminatory ability. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed no significant deviation between predicted and actual HUA frequency in both groups (χ² = 5.980, 9.780, P = 0.649, 0.281), supporting the nomogram's reliability.

Conclusion: The developed nomogram model, utilizing independent risk factors for HUA in hypertensive patients, exhibits strong discrimination and calibration. It holds promise as a valuable tool for cardiovascular professionals in clinical decision-making.