Estimating population-level 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations in Australia and New Zealand using the sun exposure (SUNEX) microsimulation model

Abstract

Exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation from the sun has both harms and benefits for human health. The best-known benefit of sun exposure is the generation of vitamin D within the skin and the best-known harm is malignant skin cancer. Australia and New Zealand have very high ambient UV radiation, resulting in high rates of skin cancer incidence and mortality, yet there is an appreciable prevalence of vitamin D deficiency (defined as blood 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) < 50 nmol/L) in both populations. The purpose of this study was to create a microsimulation model to replicate population 25(OH)D concentrations of people living in Australia and New Zealand, thus enabling the effect of different population-wide interventions to be estimated. We used large population datasets containing data on sun behaviours and socio-demographic variables, and environmental data on UV radiation, ozone, and solar zenith angle. Latitude, weather and time of day were accounted for. We simulated the conversion of daily UV radiation to a standard vitamin D dose (SDD) (100 J/m² vitamin D-weighted UV) and monthly accumulation of SDD to 25(OH)D concentration. The model was calibrated to match the seasonal prevalence of vitamin D deficiency. This report describes the Sun Exposure (SUNEX) microsimulation model, its development, data inputs and calibration against population prevalence of vitamin D deficiency.