Development and validation of nomogram models for predicting postoperative prognosis of early-stage laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma

Abstract

Background

We aimed to investigate the postoperative prognosis in patients with early-stage laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC) in association with the preoperative blood markers and clinicopathological characteristics and to develop nomograms for individual risk prediction.

Methods

The clinical data of 353 patients with confirmed early-stage LSCC between 2009 and 2018 were retrospectively retrieved from the First Affiliated Hospital with Nanjing Medical University. All patients were randomly divided into the training and testing groups in a 7:3 ratio. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed, followed by the construction of nomograms to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS). Finally, the nomograms were verified internally, and the predictive capability of the nomograms was evaluated and compared with that of tumour T staging.

Results

Univariate and multivariate analyses identified platelet counts (PLT), fibrinogen (FIB), and platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) were independent factors for RFS, and FIB, systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), and haemoglobin (HGB) were independent prognostic factors for OS. The nomograms showed higher predictive C-indexes than T staging. Furthermore, decision curve analysis (DCA) revealed that the net benefit of the nomograms’ calculation model was superior to that of T staging.

Conclusions

We established and validated nomograms to predict postoperative 1-, 3- and 5-year RFS and OS in patients with early-stage LSCC based on significant blood markers and clinicopathological characteristics. These models might help clinicians make personalized treatment decisions.