Analysis of the cost-optimal heat supply strategy for Munich following a clean energy transformation pathway

Abstract

Munich plans to achieve carbon neutrality by 2035. In this research the focus is to develop a concise, economical and sustainable heat transformation strategy. Firstly, technologies with the lowest CO₂ abatement costs by demand clusters were identified. Then their roll-out was assessed in two target-oriented and one reference scenario in a regionalized stock and flow model, including limitations for transformation speed. It becomes apparent that, due to limited realization capacity, the target can only be reached including compensation. Nevertheless, contemporary implementation of measures is of importance. Considerable investments of 7.3 Bio. Euro are necessary in the target-oriented scenarios, compared to 3.6 Bio. Euro in the reference. However, savings on fossil fuels exceed the additional costs, resulting in an overall economic benefit, also for tenants. This can only be achieved by an early start of a directly target-conform transformation of each building to minimize sunk costs. Support for the utility may be needed for an early extension and transformation of district heating as investments range between 740 and 1.500 Mio. Euro depending on the extension of district heating. The expected increase in electricity demand (average 12 %) and maximum load (average 35 %) until 2050 render sector-integrated planning and regulation substantial.