The need for nonuniform risk acceptability across climate change scenarios.

IF 3 3区 医学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS
Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-09-01 Epub Date: 2024-03-14 DOI:10.1111/risa.14293
Amro Nasr, Oskar Larsson Ivanov, Ivar Björnsson, Jonas Johansson
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Abstract

Climate change risk assessment studies focus on identifying and analyzing different risks considering several climate change scenarios and on evaluating the cost-effectiveness of different adaptation measures. However, risk acceptability is often not reflected on in the context of climate change risk studies. Noting that the different climate change scenarios depict drastically contrasting images of the future in terms of population growth, economic development, and changes to life expectancy, this article uses risk acceptance criteria that are based on socioeconomic considerations to highlight the need for nonuniform risk acceptability across climate change scenarios. For this purpose, the optimum implied cost of averting a fatality derived based on the life quality index concept and the value of a quality-adjusted life year derived based on the time principle of acceptable life risk are assessed in three different climate change scenarios for Sweden. Additionally, an illustrative example that assesses the acceptable probability of failure of a steel rod under axial tension in the different climate change scenarios is presented. It is shown that risk acceptance criteria can vary considerably across the different climate change scenarios (e.g., more than 190% variation in the acceptable probability of failure for Sweden in the considered example). This article demonstrates that the ability of societies to afford risk-reducing measures may vary considerably across the different climate change scenarios. Hence, it can be concluded that (1) in the context of climate change risk assessments, risk acceptance criteria need to be developed to account for the different climate change scenarios, and (2) these criteria may vary considerably across the different climate change scenarios. Finally, relevant challenges and research needs are also provided.

在不同的气候变化情景下,需要有不同的风险可接受性。
气候变化风险评估研究的重点是在考虑多种气候变化情景的情况下确定和分析不同的风险,并评估不同适应措施的成本效益。然而,在气候变化风险研究中,风险的可接受性往往没有得到反映。本文注意到不同的气候变化情景在人口增长、经济发展和预期寿命变化方面描绘了截然不同的未来景象,因此采用了基于社会经济因素的风险接受标准,以强调不同气候变化情景下风险接受能力不一致的必要性。为此,本文评估了瑞典三种不同气候变化情景下,根据生命质量指数概念得出的避免一次死亡的最佳隐含成本,以及根据可接受生命风险的时间原则得出的质量调整生命年的价值。此外,还提供了一个示例,评估了在不同气候变化情景下钢棒在轴向拉力作用下发生故障的可接受概率。结果表明,在不同的气候变化情景下,风险接受标准会有很大差异(例如,在所考虑的示例中,瑞典可接受的失效概率差异超过 190%)。本文表明,在不同的气候变化情景下,社会对降低风险措施的承受能力可能会有很大差异。因此,可以得出以下结论:(1) 在气候变化风险评估中,需要制定风险接受标准,以考虑不同的气候变化情景;(2) 这些标准在不同的气候变化情景中可能会有很大差异。最后,还提出了相关的挑战和研究需求。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Risk Analysis
Risk Analysis 数学-数学跨学科应用
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
10.50%
发文量
183
审稿时长
4.2 months
期刊介绍: Published on behalf of the Society for Risk Analysis, Risk Analysis is ranked among the top 10 journals in the ISI Journal Citation Reports under the social sciences, mathematical methods category, and provides a focal point for new developments in the field of risk analysis. This international peer-reviewed journal is committed to publishing critical empirical research and commentaries dealing with risk issues. The topics covered include: • Human health and safety risks • Microbial risks • Engineering • Mathematical modeling • Risk characterization • Risk communication • Risk management and decision-making • Risk perception, acceptability, and ethics • Laws and regulatory policy • Ecological risks.
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