{"title":"A test of the tourism Dutch disease hypothesis in developing countries","authors":"Nikeel Nishkar Kumar , Arvind Patel","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102577","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this study, we examine whether tourism can appreciate real exchange rates in developing countries. We use Fiji as a case study with annual data from 1980 to 2019. We apply the recently developed Fourier ARDL model which automatically corrects for the effects of structural breaks. The results indicate that tourism entails real exchange rate appreciation pressure. This effect is present with positive tourism shocks in expansionary periods. Tourism exerts a marginally stronger downward pressure on real exchange rates with negative tourism shocks during recessionary periods. Negative tourism shocks in expansions and positive tourism shocks in recessions do not influence real exchange rates. The implication is that whether tourism leads to an appreciation of real exchange rates depends on the relevant phase of the business cycle.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"116 ","pages":"Article 102577"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969699724000425/pdfft?md5=f3392c05ce74e38e9f718b0152e86fd9&pid=1-s2.0-S0969699724000425-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Air Transport Management","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969699724000425","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"TRANSPORTATION","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
In this study, we examine whether tourism can appreciate real exchange rates in developing countries. We use Fiji as a case study with annual data from 1980 to 2019. We apply the recently developed Fourier ARDL model which automatically corrects for the effects of structural breaks. The results indicate that tourism entails real exchange rate appreciation pressure. This effect is present with positive tourism shocks in expansionary periods. Tourism exerts a marginally stronger downward pressure on real exchange rates with negative tourism shocks during recessionary periods. Negative tourism shocks in expansions and positive tourism shocks in recessions do not influence real exchange rates. The implication is that whether tourism leads to an appreciation of real exchange rates depends on the relevant phase of the business cycle.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Air Transport Management (JATM) sets out to address, through high quality research articles and authoritative commentary, the major economic, management and policy issues facing the air transport industry today. It offers practitioners and academics an international and dynamic forum for analysis and discussion of these issues, linking research and practice and stimulating interaction between the two. The refereed papers in the journal cover all the major sectors of the industry (airlines, airports, air traffic management) as well as related areas such as tourism management and logistics. Papers are blind reviewed, normally by two referees, chosen for their specialist knowledge. The journal provides independent, original and rigorous analysis in the areas of: • Policy, regulation and law • Strategy • Operations • Marketing • Economics and finance • Sustainability
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