Development and internal validation of a prediction model for patients with hematologic diseases of fall risk: a cohort study.

IF 2.3 4区医学 Q2 HEMATOLOGY

Expert Review of Hematology Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Epub Date: 2024-03-14 DOI:10.1080/17474086.2024.2329596

Huang Xinrui, Xu Min, Cao Min, Xu Chenyi

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: To develop and internally validate a prediction model for identifying patients with hematologic diseases of fall risk.

Research design and methods: This is a prospective cohort study from a prospective collection of data for 6 months. We recruited 412 patients with hematologic diseases in medical institutions and home environment of China. The outcome of the prediction model was fall or not. These variables were filtered via univariable logistic analysis, LASSO, and multivariable logistic analysis. We adopt an internal validation method of K-fold cross validation. The area under the ROC curve and the H-L test were used to evaluate the discrimination and calibration of the model.

Results: Five influencing factors were identified multivariable logistic regression analysis. The established model equation is as follows: the H-L goodness-of-fit test of the model p > 0.05. The area under the ROC curve of train is 0.957 (95% CI: 0.936 ~ 0.978), and the area under the ROC curve of test is 0.962 (95% CI: 0.884 ~ 1), so the model calibration and discriminant validity are good.

Conclusion: Our equation has good sensitivity and specificity in predicting the fall risk of patients with hematologic diseases, and has certain positive significance for clinical assessment of their fall risk.

Trial registration number: ChiCTR2200063940.

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血液病患者跌倒风险预测模型的开发和内部验证：一项队列研究。

研究背景研究设计与方法：这是一项为期6个月的前瞻性队列研究。我们在中国的医疗机构和家庭环境中招募了 412 名血液病患者。预测模型的结果是跌倒与否。这些变量通过单变量逻辑分析、LASSO 和多变量逻辑分析进行筛选。我们采用了 K 倍交叉验证的内部验证方法。使用 ROC 曲线下面积和 H-L 检验来评估模型的区分度和校准：结果：通过多变量逻辑回归分析确定了五个影响因素。建立的模型方程为：模型的 H-L 拟合度检验 p > 0.05。训练的 ROC 曲线下面积为 0.957（95% CI：0.936 ~ 0.978），检验的 ROC 曲线下面积为 0.962（95% CI：0.884 ~ 1），因此模型校准和判别有效性良好：结论：我们的方程在预测血液病患者跌倒风险方面具有良好的灵敏度和特异性，对临床评估其跌倒风险具有一定的积极意义：ChiCTR2200063940。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Expert Review of Hematology HEMATOLOGY-

CiteScore

4.70

自引率

3.60%

发文量

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： Advanced molecular research techniques have transformed hematology in recent years. With improved understanding of hematologic diseases, we now have the opportunity to research and evaluate new biological therapies, new drugs and drug combinations, new treatment schedules and novel approaches including stem cell transplantation. We can also expect proteomics, molecular genetics and biomarker research to facilitate new diagnostic approaches and the identification of appropriate therapies. Further advances in our knowledge regarding the formation and function of blood cells and blood-forming tissues should ensue, and it will be a major challenge for hematologists to adopt these new paradigms and develop integrated strategies to define the best possible patient care. Expert Review of Hematology (1747-4086) puts these advances in context and explores how they will translate directly into clinical practice.