The analysis of the shared bike usage pattern: Application of survival model to Taiwan YouBike

Abstract

Shared bike schemes have been implemented worldwide as a first and last-mile service for public transport systems. However, shared bikes can also be used as a primary mode. Riding duration may be a straightforward evaluation criterion to identify the role of shared bikes. This study uses survival models to investigate the critical variables influencing shared bike riding duration with a case study of YouBike in Taiwan. The results show that a survival model with a log-logistic distribution has the best model fit, as some durations are extraordinarily long or short due to the heterogeneity of usage behavior, in which the mean duration was 22 min, but 15% had riding duration longer than 30 min. The riding duration significantly varied with the turnover rate of the station location and the rider's usage behavior based on the variable estimation results. The demand pattern of YouBike riders shows a 96% chance of having a riding duration of fewer than 30 min, dropping below 55% for longer than 90 min. The indicator expressing riding duration for same-station trips is greater than an hour, suggesting that some riders may perceive YouBike as a primary or individual transport mode. The finding also underscores the role of shared bikes in facilitating users' daily activities, such as shopping and recreation, emphasizing their potential as an interchangeable mobility option. This indicates that YouBike is a first and last-mile mode and the primary mode in some cases with longer riding duration. This study redefines the role of shared bikes to promote sustainable transport.