Impacts of COVID-19-era economic policies on consumer debt in the United Kingdom

Abstract

We examine the effects of the Universal Credit expansion and mortgage forbearance on the financial well-being of United Kingdom (UK) residents during the pandemic. Using anonymized individual-level consumer financial data on 2 million UK consumers, each with one or more defaulted accounts accrued before the pandemic, we found that average nonmortgage debt increased by 17% from October 2019 (£5497) to December 2021 (£6456). Using a difference-in-difference approach, we found mixed policy impacts on the debt people carried. Although the expansion of Universal Credit was intended to help financially vulnerable families, consumers who were more likely to benefit from the Universal Credit expansion took on 1% more total nonmortgage debt after the policy expansion. By contrast, during the period of mortgage forbearance, mortgage holders accumulated 1% less total nonmortgage debt compared to nonmortgage holders. These results suggest that policies implemented in the UK to protect financially vulnerable families were insufficient to prevent beneficiaries from accumulating additional debt during the pandemic.