Skill loss during unemployment and the scarring effects of the COVID-19 pandemic

IF 2.2 2区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Labour Economics Pub Date : 2024-03-01 DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2024.102516

Paul Jackson , Victor Ortego-Marti

引用次数: 0

Abstract

We integrate the SIR epidemiology model into a search and matching framework with skill loss during unemployment. As infections spread, fewer jobs are created, skills deteriorate and TFP declines. The equilibrium is not efficient due to infection and skill composition externalities. Job creation increases infections due to increased interactions among workers. However, lower job creation decreases TFP due to skill loss. A pandemic causes the unemployment rate to increase by 13.4 percentage points and TFP to decline by 0.61%, i.e. nearly 54% of productivity losses in past recessions. We study the efficient allocation given the trade-off between both externalities and show that quantitatively the skill composition externality is sizable.

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失业期间的技能损失和 COVID-19 大流行病的伤疤效应

我们将 SIR 流行病学模型整合到一个搜索和匹配框架中，并考虑到失业期间的技能损失。随着感染的扩散，创造的就业机会减少，技能退化，全要素生产率下降。由于感染和技能构成的外部性，均衡并不是有效的。由于工人之间的互动增加，就业机会的创造会增加感染率。然而，由于技能的丧失，就业机会的减少会降低全要素生产率。大流行会导致失业率上升 13.4 个百分点，全要素生产率下降 0.61%，即接近过去经济衰退中生产率损失的 54%。我们研究了在权衡两种外部性的情况下的有效分配，结果表明，从数量上看，技能构成的外部性是相当大的。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Labour Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.60

自引率

8.30%

发文量

142

期刊介绍： Labour Economics is devoted to publishing research in the field of labour economics both on the microeconomic and on the macroeconomic level, in a balanced mix of theory, empirical testing and policy applications. It gives due recognition to analysis and explanation of institutional arrangements of national labour markets and the impact of these institutions on labour market outcomes.