The Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) Project in Central Asia: The Case for a Regional Hydroclimate Project

Abstract

Central Asia consists of the former Soviet Republics, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The region’s climate is continental, mostly semi-arid to arid. Agriculture is a significant part of the region’s economy. By its nature of intensive water use, agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change. Population growth and irrigation development have significantly increased the demand for water in the region. Major climate change issues include melting glaciers and a shrinking snowpack, which are the foundation of the region’s water resources, and a changing precipitation regime. Most glaciers are located in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, leading to transboundary water resource issues. Summer already has extremely high temperatures. Analyses indicate that Central Asia has been warming and precipitation might be increasing. The warming is expected to increase, but its spatial and temporal distribution depends upon specific global scenarios. Projections of future precipitation show significant uncertainties in type, amount, and distribution. Regional Hydroclimate Projects (RHPs) are an approach to studying these issues. Initial steps to develop an RHP began in 2021 with a widely distributed online survey about these climate issues. It was followed up with an online workshop and then, in 2023, an in-person workshop, held in Tashkent, Uzbekistan. Priorities for the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) project for the region include both observations and modeling, as well as development of better and additional precipitation observations, all of which are topics for the next workshop. A well-designed RHP should lead to reductions in critical climate uncertainties in policy-relevant timeframes that can influence decisions on necessary investments in climate adaptation.