High-resolution dispersion modelling of PM2.5, PM10, NOx and NO2 exposure in metropolitan areas in Sweden 2000‒2018 – large health gains due to decreased population exposure

IF 2.9 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Karl Kilbo Edlund, Marta A. Kisiel, Christian Asker, David Segersson, Cecilia Bennet, Mårten Spanne, Susanna Gustafsson, Jenny Lindvall, Kristina Eneroth, Martin Tondel, Petter Ljungman, Leo Stockfelt, Göran Pershagen, Peter Molnár
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Abstract

Ambient air pollution remains the major environmental cause of disease. Accurate assessment of population exposure and small-scale spatial exposure variations over long time periods is essential for epidemiological studies. We estimated annual exposure to fine and coarse particulate matter (PM2.5, PM10), and nitrogen oxides (NOx, NO2) with high spatial resolution to examine time trends 2000‒2018, compliance with the WHO Air Quality Guidelines, and assess the health impact. The modelling area covered six metropolitan areas in Sweden with a combined population of 5.5 million. Long-range transported air pollutants were modelled using a chemical transport model with bias correction, and locally emitted air pollutants using source-specific Gaussian-type dispersion models at resolutions up to 50 × 50 m. The modelled concentrations were validated using quality-controlled monitoring data. Lastly, we estimated the reduction in mortality associated with the decrease in population exposure. The validity of modelled air pollutant concentrations was good (R2 for PM2.5 0.84, PM10 0.61, and NOx 0.87). Air pollution exposure decreased substantially, from a population weighted mean exposure to PM2.5 of 12.2 µg m−3 in 2000 to 5.4 µg m−3 in 2018. We estimated that the decreased exposure was associated with a reduction of 2719 (95% CI 2046–3055) premature deaths annually. However, in 2018, 65%, 8%, and 42% of residents in the modelled areas were still exposed to PM2.5, PM10, or NO2 levels, respectively, that exceeded the current WHO Air Quality Guidelines for annual average exposure. This emphasises the potential public health benefits of reductions in air pollution emissions.

Abstract Image

2000-2018年瑞典大都市地区PM2.5、PM10、氮氧化物和二氧化氮暴露的高分辨率弥散模型--人口暴露减少带来巨大健康收益
环境空气污染仍然是导致疾病的主要环境原因。准确评估人群暴露量和长期小范围空间暴露量变化对流行病学研究至关重要。我们估算了细颗粒物和粗颗粒物(PM2.5、PM10)以及氮氧化物(NOx、NO2)的高空间分辨率年暴露量,以研究 2000-2018 年的时间趋势、是否符合世界卫生组织空气质量指南,并评估对健康的影响。建模区域涵盖瑞典六个大都市区,总人口达 550 万。长程飘移的空气污染物使用带有偏差校正的化学飘移模型进行建模,本地排放的空气污染物使用特定来源的高斯型弥散模型进行建模,分辨率可达 50 × 50 m。最后,我们估算了与人口暴露减少相关的死亡率下降。空气污染物浓度模型的有效性良好(PM2.5 的 R2 为 0.84,PM10 为 0.61,氮氧化物为 0.87)。空气污染暴露量大幅下降,从 2000 年 PM2.5 的人口加权平均暴露量 12.2 µg m-3 降至 2018 年的 5.4 µg m-3。我们估计,暴露量的减少与每年减少 2719 例(95% CI 2046-3055 例)过早死亡有关。然而,在 2018 年,建模地区仍分别有 65%、8% 和 42% 的居民暴露于 PM2.5、PM10 或 NO2 水平,超过了当前世界卫生组织空气质量指南规定的年均暴露量。这强调了减少空气污染排放对公众健康的潜在益处。
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来源期刊
Air Quality Atmosphere and Health
Air Quality Atmosphere and Health ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-
CiteScore
8.80
自引率
2.00%
发文量
146
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Air Quality, Atmosphere, and Health is a multidisciplinary journal which, by its very name, illustrates the broad range of work it publishes and which focuses on atmospheric consequences of human activities and their implications for human and ecological health. It offers research papers, critical literature reviews and commentaries, as well as special issues devoted to topical subjects or themes. International in scope, the journal presents papers that inform and stimulate a global readership, as the topic addressed are global in their import. Consequently, we do not encourage submission of papers involving local data that relate to local problems. Unless they demonstrate wide applicability, these are better submitted to national or regional journals. Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health addresses such topics as acid precipitation; airborne particulate matter; air quality monitoring and management; exposure assessment; risk assessment; indoor air quality; atmospheric chemistry; atmospheric modeling and prediction; air pollution climatology; climate change and air quality; air pollution measurement; atmospheric impact assessment; forest-fire emissions; atmospheric science; greenhouse gases; health and ecological effects; clean air technology; regional and global change and satellite measurements. This journal benefits a diverse audience of researchers, public health officials and policy makers addressing problems that call for solutions based in evidence from atmospheric and exposure assessment scientists, epidemiologists, and risk assessors. Publication in the journal affords the opportunity to reach beyond defined disciplinary niches to this broader readership.
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