Market timing, farmer expectations, and liquidity constraints

IF 5.1 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Rui Albuquerque , Bruno de Araujo , Luis Brandao-Marques , Gerivasia Mosse , Pippy de Vletter , Helder Zavale
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

We use data on price expectations from a survey of randomly sampled smallholder farmers in Mozambique. Across all crops, farmers report selling on average within three weeks of harvest, at lower prices than expected later in the season. Liquidity constrained farmers sell their harvest 50% faster than unconstrained farmers, but they increase their storage time in response to higher expected future prices. We address causality using an instrumental variables approach exploiting abnormal rainfall from cyclones Idai and Kenneth. We develop a model on market timing and its relation to price expectations and liquidity constraints.

市场时机、农民预期和流动性限制
我们使用的价格预期数据来自对莫桑比克小农的随机抽样调查。在所有作物中,农民平均在收获后三周内出售,价格低于收获季节后期的预期价格。流动性受限的农民出售收成的速度比无流动性限制的农民快 50%,但他们会因预期未来价格上涨而延长储存时间。我们采用工具变量法,利用伊代气旋和肯尼斯气旋造成的异常降雨来解决因果关系问题。我们建立了一个关于市场时机及其与价格预期和流动性限制关系的模型。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
8.30
自引率
4.00%
发文量
126
审稿时长
72 days
期刊介绍: The Journal of Development Economics publishes papers relating to all aspects of economic development - from immediate policy concerns to structural problems of underdevelopment. The emphasis is on quantitative or analytical work, which is relevant as well as intellectually stimulating.
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