{"title":"Mobile Politicians: Opportunistic Career Moves","authors":"Naci Mocan, Duha T. Altindag","doi":"10.1007/s12122-024-09353-0","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Using information on more than 1,500 elected Members of the Parliament (MPs) and the votes received by political parties in five consecutive elections in Turkey (1991–2011) and employing a controlling strategy, we show that elected MPs are more likely to switch parties <i>after</i> an election if they faced greater electoral uncertainty and experienced a narrowly-won victory. Politicians switch parties after an election to improve their <i>ex-ante</i> re-election probability in the following election, and party-switching MPs are more likely to get elected in the next election. MPs switch parties to move towards the median voter. These results point to forward-looking opportunistic behavior of politicians regarding their strategy to win future elections to have a longer tenure in the Parliament.</p>","PeriodicalId":46592,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Labor Research","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Labor Research","FirstCategoryId":"91","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12122-024-09353-0","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS & LABOR","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
Using information on more than 1,500 elected Members of the Parliament (MPs) and the votes received by political parties in five consecutive elections in Turkey (1991–2011) and employing a controlling strategy, we show that elected MPs are more likely to switch parties after an election if they faced greater electoral uncertainty and experienced a narrowly-won victory. Politicians switch parties after an election to improve their ex-ante re-election probability in the following election, and party-switching MPs are more likely to get elected in the next election. MPs switch parties to move towards the median voter. These results point to forward-looking opportunistic behavior of politicians regarding their strategy to win future elections to have a longer tenure in the Parliament.
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The Journal of Labor Research provides an outlet for original research on all aspects of behavior affecting labor market outcomes. The Journal provides a forum for both empirical and theoretical research on labor economics. The journal welcomes submissions issues relating to labor markets and employment relations, including labor demand and supply, personnel economics, unions and collective bargaining, employee participation, dispute resolution, labor market policies, types of employment relationships, the interplay between labor market variables and policy issues in labor economics are published by the Journal. The Journal of Labor Research also publishes book reviews relating to these topics.
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