Epidemiological findings, estimates of the instantaneous reproduction number, and control strategies of the first Mpox outbreak in Latin America

IF 6.3 3区 医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES
Cándida Díaz-Brochero , Zulma M. Cucunubá
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background

The 2022–2023 period marked the largest global Mpox outbreak, with Latin America's situation notably underexplored. This study aims to estimate Mpox's instantaneous reproduction number (R(t)), analyze epidemiological trends, and map vaccination efforts in six Latin American countries.

Methods

Utilizing Pan American Health Organization Mpox surveillance data, we examined demographic characteristics, cumulative incidence rates, and epidemic curves, calculated R(t) with weekly sliding windows for each country, alongside a review of vaccination initiatives.

Results

From 2022 to 2023, 25,503 Mpox cases and 71 deaths were reported across Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru, with a significant majority (91.8%–98.5%) affecting men, with a mean age of 32–35 years. Maximum R(t) values varied across countries: Argentina (2.63; 0.85 to 5.39), Brazil (3.13; 2.61 to 3.69), Chile (2.91; 1.55 to 4.70), Colombia (3.15; 2.07 to 4.44), Mexico (2.28; 1.18 to 3.75), and Peru (2.84; 2.33 to 3.40). The epidemic's peak occurred between August and September 2022 with R(t) values subsequently dropping below 1. From November 2022, and as of February 2024, only Chile, Peru, and Brazil had initiated Mpox vaccination campaigns, with Colombia launching a Clinical Trial.

Conclusion

The peak of the Mpox epidemic in the studied countries occurred before the commencement of vaccination programs. This trend may be then partly attributed to a combination of behavioral modifications in key affected communities and contact tracing local programs. Therefore, the proportion of the at-risk population that remains susceptible is still uncertain, highlighting the need for continued surveillance and evaluation of vaccination strategies.

拉丁美洲首次爆发的麻风腮疫情的流行病学发现、瞬时繁殖数量估计和控制策略。
背景:2023-2024年是全球最大规模的麻风腮疫情爆发期,而拉丁美洲的情况则明显缺乏研究。本研究旨在估算麻风腮痘的瞬时繁殖数(R(t)),分析流行病学趋势,并绘制拉丁美洲六个国家的疫苗接种地图:利用泛美卫生组织的痘病毒监测数据,我们研究了人口特征、累积发病率和流行曲线,并利用每周滑动窗口计算了每个国家的 R(t),同时回顾了疫苗接种措施:从 2022 年到 2023 年,巴西、哥伦比亚、智利、秘鲁、墨西哥和阿根廷共报告了 25,503 例麻风腮病例和 71 例死亡病例,其中绝大多数(91.8%-98.5%)为男性,平均年龄为 32-35 岁。各国的最大 R(t) 值各不相同:阿根廷(2.63;0.85 至 5.39)、巴西(3.13;2.61 至 3.69)、智利(2.91;1.55 至 4.70)、哥伦比亚(3.15;2.07 至 4.44)、墨西哥(2.28;1.18 至 3.75)和秘鲁(2.84;2.33 至 3.40)。从 2022 年 11 月到 2024 年 2 月,只有智利、秘鲁和巴西启动了麻痘疫苗接种活动,哥伦比亚启动了临床试验:结论:所研究国家的麻风腮流行高峰出现在疫苗接种计划启动之前。这一趋势可能部分归因于主要受影响社区的行为改变和当地的接触追踪计划。因此,仍然易感的高危人群比例仍不确定,这突出表明有必要对疫苗接种策略进行持续监测和评估。
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来源期刊
Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease
Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH-INFECTIOUS DISEASES
CiteScore
19.40
自引率
1.70%
发文量
211
审稿时长
49 days
期刊介绍: Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease Publication Scope: Publishes original papers, reviews, and consensus papers Primary theme: infectious disease in the context of travel medicine Focus Areas: Epidemiology and surveillance of travel-related illness Prevention and treatment of travel-associated infections Malaria prevention and treatment Travellers' diarrhoea Infections associated with mass gatherings Migration-related infections Vaccines and vaccine-preventable disease Global policy/regulations for disease prevention and control Practical clinical issues for travel and tropical medicine practitioners Coverage: Addresses areas of controversy and debate in travel medicine Aims to inform guidelines and policy pertinent to travel medicine and the prevention of infectious disease Publication Features: Offers a fast peer-review process Provides early online publication of accepted manuscripts Aims to publish cutting-edge papers
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