Trends by age and sex and projections of disease prevalence from studying hypertensive heart disease in China over the past three decades

IF 1.9 4区医学 Q3 HEALTH POLICY & SERVICES

International Journal of Health Planning and Management Pub Date : 2024-02-21 DOI:10.1002/hpm.3786

Yao Su, Honghong He, Jingtao Yang, Ya Liu, Weiwei Jiang, Chen Li, Yang Wei, Jun Cheng, Yiguo Chen

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background

Hypertensive heart disease (HHD) is a common cause of cardiovascular disease and mortality worldwide, and its burden is increasing with aging populations.

Objectives

This study aimed to estimate the prevalence and mortality rates of HHD in mainland China and Taiwan Province using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019), and forecast the development trend of HHD from 2020 to 2024.

Methods

We obtained data on number of cases, deaths, crude prevalence rate, crude death rate, age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and age-standardized death rate (ASDR) for mainland China and Taiwan Province from 1990 to 2019 from the GBD 2019. Joinpoint software was used to estimate average annual percentage change (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals, and the number of HHD cases in China from 2022 to 2024 was predicted by the exponential smoothing method.

Results

Between 1990 and 2019, HHD cases and deaths increased in mainland China, but the ASPR and ASDR decreased by 5.96% and 48.72%, respectively. In Taiwan Province, ASPR and ASDR decreased by 7.66% and 52.14%, respectively. The number of HHD cases and death rates varied by region, age, and sex, with a higher number of cases in mainland China than in Taiwan Province. By 2024, the number of HHD cases in mainland China was projected to be over 9.6 million cases, and in Taiwan Province, it was projected to surpass 120,000 cases.

Conclusion

The differences in HHD cases between mainland China and Taiwan Province in terms of age and sex indicated the need for effective prevention and control measures, especially targeting the elderly population. These findings can inform policymakers and health professionals in the development of targeted prevention and treatment strategies and resource allocation for HHD in China.

查看原文本刊更多论文

过去三十年中国高血压心脏病研究中按年龄和性别划分的趋势以及疾病流行率的预测。

背景：高血压性心脏病（HHD）是全球心血管疾病和死亡的常见原因，其负担随着人口老龄化而不断增加：本研究旨在利用《2019 年全球疾病负担研究》（GBD 2019）的数据估算中国大陆和台湾省高血压心脏病的患病率和死亡率，并预测 2020 年至 2024 年高血压心脏病的发展趋势：方法：我们从《全球疾病负担研究2019》（GBD 2019）中获得了1990年至2019年中国大陆和台湾省的病例数、死亡数、粗患病率、粗死亡率、年龄标准化患病率（ASPR）和年龄标准化死亡率（ASDR）。利用Joinpoint软件估算了年均百分比变化（AAPC）及95%置信区间，并利用指数平滑法预测了2022年至2024年中国的HHD病例数：结果：1990-2019年间，中国大陆的HHD病例数和死亡数均有所增加，但ASPR和ASDR分别下降了5.96%和48.72%。台湾省的ASPR和ASDR分别下降了7.66%和52.14%。不同地区、年龄和性别的人类乳房发育异常病例数和死亡率各不相同，中国大陆的病例数高于台湾省。预计到2024年，中国大陆的HHD病例数将超过960万例，台湾省的病例数将超过12万例：结论：中国大陆和台湾省的人类乳头瘤病毒感染病例在年龄和性别方面的差异表明，有必要采取有效的预防和控制措施，尤其是针对老年人群。这些研究结果可为政策制定者和卫生专业人员提供信息，帮助他们制定有针对性的预防和治疗策略，并为中国的人类乳头瘤病毒防治工作分配资源。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Health Planning and Management Multiple-

CiteScore

4.50

自引率

3.70%

发文量

197

期刊介绍： Policy making and implementation, planning and management are widely recognized as central to effective health systems and services and to better health. Globalization, and the economic circumstances facing groups of countries worldwide, meanwhile present a great challenge for health planning and management. The aim of this quarterly journal is to offer a forum for publications which direct attention to major issues in health policy, planning and management. The intention is to maintain a balance between theory and practice, from a variety of disciplines, fields and perspectives. The Journal is explicitly international and multidisciplinary in scope and appeal: articles about policy, planning and management in countries at various stages of political, social, cultural and economic development are welcomed, as are those directed at the different levels (national, regional, local) of the health sector. Manuscripts are invited from a spectrum of different disciplines e.g., (the social sciences, management and medicine) as long as they advance our knowledge and understanding of the health sector. The Journal is therefore global, and eclectic.