{"title":"Shifts in property crime patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico","authors":"","doi":"10.1007/s11292-024-09611-2","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Abstract</h3> <span> <h3>Objectives</h3> <p>To estimate the dynamic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on property crime in Mexico. We do so for a longer time horizon than the existing literature and for two types of property crime: on-line and on-site.</p> </span> <span> <h3>Methods</h3> <p>A retrospective ecological analysis during the COVID-19 pandemic using an event study methodology. This paper uses administrative data from Mexico’s National Public Security System from January 2017 to December 2022. Our data is structured as a monthly series covering all 2457 Mexican municipalities.</p> </span> <span> <h3>Results</h3> <p>We find heterogeneity in the pandemic’s impact by type of property crime and a dynamic, permanent effect for both types of property crime. Namely, our results point to a drop and quick recovery of fraud—property crime mostly committed on-line—, which in the medium run surpasses pre-pandemic levels by 44%. Further, our results point to a significant drop in robbery, theft, domestic burglary, and motor vehicle theft—all property crimes committed on-site—, with a slight recovery after the end of the national lockdown, even though rates for these crimes never reached pre-pandemic levels.</p> </span> <span> <h3>Conclusions</h3> <p>The 2020 pandemic caused a permanent shift in property crime from on-site to on-line spaces. Potential mechanisms point to disruptions in mobility in retail and recreational areas, residential zones, and workplaces as important mediating factors.</p> </span>","PeriodicalId":47684,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Experimental Criminology","volume":"63 1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Experimental Criminology","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-024-09611-2","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Objectives
To estimate the dynamic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on property crime in Mexico. We do so for a longer time horizon than the existing literature and for two types of property crime: on-line and on-site.
Methods
A retrospective ecological analysis during the COVID-19 pandemic using an event study methodology. This paper uses administrative data from Mexico’s National Public Security System from January 2017 to December 2022. Our data is structured as a monthly series covering all 2457 Mexican municipalities.
Results
We find heterogeneity in the pandemic’s impact by type of property crime and a dynamic, permanent effect for both types of property crime. Namely, our results point to a drop and quick recovery of fraud—property crime mostly committed on-line—, which in the medium run surpasses pre-pandemic levels by 44%. Further, our results point to a significant drop in robbery, theft, domestic burglary, and motor vehicle theft—all property crimes committed on-site—, with a slight recovery after the end of the national lockdown, even though rates for these crimes never reached pre-pandemic levels.
Conclusions
The 2020 pandemic caused a permanent shift in property crime from on-site to on-line spaces. Potential mechanisms point to disruptions in mobility in retail and recreational areas, residential zones, and workplaces as important mediating factors.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Experimental Criminology focuses on high quality experimental and quasi-experimental research in the advancement of criminological theory and/or the development of evidence based crime and justice policy. The journal is also committed to the advancement of the science of systematic reviews and experimental methods in criminology and criminal justice. The journal seeks empirical papers on experimental and quasi-experimental studies, systematic reviews on substantive criminological and criminal justice issues, and methodological papers on experimentation and systematic review. The journal encourages submissions from scholars in the broad array of scientific disciplines that are concerned with criminology as well as crime and justice problems.
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