Unsuccessful tuberculosis treatment outcomes across Brazil's geographical landscape before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: are we truly advancing toward the sustainable development/end TB goal?

Abstract

Background: Tuberculosis is one of the most significant infectious diseases for global public health. The reallocation of healthcare resources and the restrictions imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic have hindered access to TB diagnosis and treatment. Increases in unfavorable outcomes of the disease have been observed in Brazil. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatial distribution of unfavorable TB treatment outcomes in Brazil before and during the pandemic.

Methods: An ecological study with spatial analysis was conducted with all 5569 municipalities in Brazil. All reported cases of tuberculosis between January 2010 and December 2021, as well as reported cases of COVID-19 from February 2020 to December 2021, were included. The outcomes studied encompass loss to follow-up, drug-resistant tuberculosis, and death. The Getis Ord GI* technique was employed to assess spatial association, and the Kernel density estimator was used to identify areas with concentrated increases or decreases in outcomes. Bivariate Local Moran's I was used to examine the spatial association between outcomes and COVID-19 incidence. The study was approved by the Research Ethics Committee of Ribeirão Preto Nursing School, University of São Paulo.

Results: There were 134,394 cases of loss to follow-up, 10,270 cases of drug resistance, and 37,863 deaths. Clusters of high and low values were identified for all three outcomes, indicating significant changes in the spatial distribution patterns. Increases in concentrations were observed for lost to follow-up cases in the Southeast, while reductions occurred in the Northeast, South, and Midwest. Drug-resistant tuberculosis experienced an increase in the Southern and Southeastern regions and a decrease in the Northeast and South. TB-related deaths showed notable concentrations in the Midwest, Northeast, South, and Southeast. There was an increase in high occurrence clusters for deaths after 2020 and 2021 in the Northeast.

Conclusions: The pandemic has brought additional challenges, emphasizing the importance of enhancing efforts and disease control strategies, prioritizing early identification, treatment adherence, and follow-up. This commitment is vital for achieving the goal of tuberculosis elimination.