The Appraisal of Players’ Transfer Market Values: Empirical Evidence From Italian Serie A

Abstract

This paper focuses on the determinants of transfer market valuations of Italian top division football players over the period 2007‒2017. We use data provided by transfermarkt.de to estimate the association between players’ characteristics and their transfer valuation. Additionally, by applying panel regression techniques, we separate team and season effects from individual attributes. We find an inverted U-shaped association with age and a positive association with goals, assists, and minutes played in national and international competitions. Moreover, the financial sustainability of the clubs appears to be a key factor since potential accountability turmoil may cause a reduction in the bargaining power of clubs and on the players’ market values consequently. Finally, season fixed effects show a statistically significant and strong negative trend of players’ market appraisals. That result should be taken seriously by representatives of Serie A League as well as the Italian Football Federation because the recently pursued strategy of adjusting the decrease of conventional revenues (e.g., ticket sales, TV rights and sponsorship) with the capital gains coming from player transfers proves to be rather risky.