Construction of daily precipitation series and the observational characteristics of extreme precipitation in Tianjin, China during 1888–2022

IF 6.4 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Peng Si , Qing-Xiang Li , Xiao-Yang Chen , Min Wang , Chuan-Jun Luo
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Abstract

Given the difficulties in rescuing and ensuring the quality of long-term climate data, current studies on century-scale climate change are usually limited to annual and monthly data, resulting in the poor detection of extreme climate events and their changes before 1950. In this study, we reconstructed a daily precipitation series for Tianjin from 15 September 1887 to 31 December 2022 on the basis of the most comprehensive daily precipitation records collected from the Tianjin Meteorological Archive, China, and in reference to the precipitation analysis results based on the datasets developed by the Climatic Research Unit Time-Series version 4.06, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre and University of Delaware along with the application of various homogenisation methods for climate series. Our approach provides a complete and reliable century-long daily precipitation series for the study of regional or local extreme weather and climate events. The reconstructed daily dataset reveals that the annual precipitation amount and R95 intensity in Tianjin during 1888–2022 lack significant trends and have values of 0.74 ± 6.99 and −1.84 ± 3.22 mm per decade, respectively. On the annual and seasonal scales, the precipitation amount and R95 intensity, particularly those in autumn, have increased since the latter half of the 20th century relative to those in 1888–1950. However, the increase in precipitation amount and R95 intensity is relatively limited compared with that in atmospheric water vapour content due to surface warming, indicating the highly sensitive response of extreme precipitation events to warming. In addition, the estimates for the return periods of 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years covering 1888–2022, 1888–1950 and 1951–2022 depict that the intensity of heavy rain and above magnitude was highest in 1888–1950 and decreased in 1951–2022.

1888-2022 年中国天津日降水序列的构建及极端降水的观测特征
由于长期气候资料的抢救和质量保证困难,目前对世纪尺度气候变化的研究通常局限于年度和月度资料,导致对1950年以前极端气候事件及其变化的探测不充分。在本研究中,我们以中国天津气象档案馆收集的最全面的日降水量记录为基础,参考气候研究单位时间序列 4.06 版、全球降水气候学中心和特拉华大学开发的数据集的降水量分析结果,并应用各种气候序列均质化方法,重建了天津从 1887 年 9 月 15 日至 2022 年 12 月 31 日的日降水量序列。我们的方法为研究区域或地方极端天气和气候事件提供了完整可靠的百年日降水量序列。重建的日降水数据集显示,1888-2022年间天津的年降水量和R95强度缺乏显著的变化趋势,每十年的降水量和R95强度值分别为0.74±6.99毫米和-1.84±3.22毫米。从年和季节尺度来看,20 世纪后半叶以来,天津的降水量和 R95 强度,尤其是秋季的降水量和 R95 强度与 1888-1950 年相比均有所增加。然而,与地表变暖导致的大气水汽含量的增加相比,降水量和 R95 强度的增加相对有限,这表明极端降水事件对气候变暖的反应非常敏感。此外,对 1888-2022 年、1888-1950 年和 1951-2022 年 5 年、10 年、20 年、50 年和 100 年重现期的估计表明,1888-1950 年暴雨强度及以上量级最高,1951-2022 年有所下降。
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来源期刊
Advances in Climate Change Research
Advances in Climate Change Research Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science
CiteScore
9.80
自引率
4.10%
发文量
424
审稿时长
107 days
期刊介绍: Advances in Climate Change Research publishes scientific research and analyses on climate change and the interactions of climate change with society. This journal encompasses basic science and economic, social, and policy research, including studies on mitigation and adaptation to climate change. Advances in Climate Change Research attempts to promote research in climate change and provide an impetus for the application of research achievements in numerous aspects, such as socioeconomic sustainable development, responses to the adaptation and mitigation of climate change, diplomatic negotiations of climate and environment policies, and the protection and exploitation of natural resources.
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