{"title":"Improving casualty risk estimates for uncontrolled rocket body reentries","authors":"Ewan Wright , Aaron Boley , Michael Byers","doi":"10.1016/j.jsse.2024.01.004","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Approximately 70 % of launches in 2022 resulted in an uncontrolled rocket body reentry<span>, creating an unnecessary casualty risk to people on the ground, at sea, and in aircraft. Rocket bodies have masses ranging from tens of kilograms to 20 tonnes. Using known rocket body masses and correlations between mass and casualty area, we present revised estimates for the expected risk, finding a 20–29 % probability of one or more casualties over the next decade.</span></p><p>Some states use a 1-in-10,000 threshold for accepting an uncontrolled reentry casualty risk when approving a space activity. This threshold, which is not universally agreed upon, represents a risk acceptance by one country, but imposed on the world population. As the use of space expands, with a record 180 successful launches in 2022, states and other launch providers should adopt technologies and mission designs that ensure controlled reentries. Uncontrolled reentries, particularly of large rocket bodies, constitute an unsafe and unnecessary practice.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":1,"journal":{"name":"Accounts of Chemical Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":16.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Accounts of Chemical Research","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468896724000041","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"化学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Approximately 70 % of launches in 2022 resulted in an uncontrolled rocket body reentry, creating an unnecessary casualty risk to people on the ground, at sea, and in aircraft. Rocket bodies have masses ranging from tens of kilograms to 20 tonnes. Using known rocket body masses and correlations between mass and casualty area, we present revised estimates for the expected risk, finding a 20–29 % probability of one or more casualties over the next decade.
Some states use a 1-in-10,000 threshold for accepting an uncontrolled reentry casualty risk when approving a space activity. This threshold, which is not universally agreed upon, represents a risk acceptance by one country, but imposed on the world population. As the use of space expands, with a record 180 successful launches in 2022, states and other launch providers should adopt technologies and mission designs that ensure controlled reentries. Uncontrolled reentries, particularly of large rocket bodies, constitute an unsafe and unnecessary practice.
期刊介绍：
Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance.
Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.
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