Trilateral politics in hierarchy, war, and state formation

IF 2.2 1区社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

International Theory Pub Date : 2024-02-14 DOI:10.1017/s1752971923000209

Patrick J. McDonald, Kevin Galambos

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Abstract

This paper presents a set of theoretical models that links a two-phase sequence of cooperative political integration and conflict to explore the reciprocal relationship between war and state formation. It compares equilibria rates of state formation and conflict using a Monte Carlo that generates comparative statics by altering the systemic distribution of ideology, population, tax rates, and war costs across polities. This approach supports three core findings. First, war-induced political integration is at least 2.5 times as likely to occur as integration to realize economic gains. Second, we identify mechanisms linking endogenous organizations to the likelihood of conflict in the system. For example, a greater domestic willingness to support public goods production facilitates the creation of buffer states that reduce the likelihood of a unique class of trilateral wars. These results suggest that the development of the modern administrative state has helped to foster peace. Third, we explore how modelling assumptions setting the number of actors in a strategic context can shape conclusions about war and state formation. We find that dyadic modelling restrictions tend to underestimate the likelihood of cooperative political integration and overestimate the likelihood of war relative to a triadic modelling context.

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等级制度、战争和国家形成中的三边政治

本文提出了一套理论模型，将合作性政治整合与冲突的两阶段序列联系起来，以探讨战争与国家形成之间的相互关系。它使用蒙特卡洛（Monte Carlo）方法，通过改变意识形态、人口、税率和战争成本在不同政体间的系统分布来生成比较静态，从而比较国家形成和冲突的均衡率。这种方法支持三个核心发现。首先，由战争引发的政治一体化的可能性至少是为实现经济收益而进行的一体化的 2.5 倍。其次，我们发现了内生组织与系统冲突可能性之间的关联机制。例如，国内支持公共产品生产的意愿越强，就越有利于缓冲国的建立，从而降低发生独特的三边战争的可能性。这些结果表明，现代行政国家的发展有助于促进和平。第三，我们探讨了设定战略背景下行为体数量的建模假设如何影响有关战争和国家形成的结论。我们发现，相对于三方建模环境，二元建模限制往往会低估合作性政治整合的可能性，而高估战争的可能性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Theory Multiple-

CiteScore

6.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Editorial board International Theory (IT) is a peer reviewed journal which promotes theoretical scholarship about the positive, legal, and normative aspects of world politics respectively. IT is open to theory of absolutely all varieties and from all disciplines, provided it addresses problems of politics, broadly defined and pertains to the international. IT welcomes scholarship that uses evidence from the real world to advance theoretical arguments. However, IT is intended as a forum where scholars can develop theoretical arguments in depth without an expectation of extensive empirical analysis. IT’s over-arching goal is to promote communication and engagement across theoretical and disciplinary traditions. IT puts a premium on contributors’ ability to reach as broad an audience as possible, both in the questions they engage and in their accessibility to other approaches. This might be done by addressing problems that can only be understood by combining multiple disciplinary discourses, like institutional design, or practical ethics; or by addressing phenomena that have broad ramifications, like civilizing processes in world politics, or the evolution of environmental norms. IT is also open to work that remains within one scholarly tradition, although in that case authors must make clear the horizon of their arguments in relation to other theoretical approaches.