Carbon-Free Russia: Is There a Chance to Achieve Carbon Neutrality by 2060

Abstract

The prospects for reducing the carbon intensity of the Russian economy and the possibility of achieving climate neutrality of the national economy by 2060 are studied. On the basis of a historical-extrapolation approach to the study of the development of various sociotechnical systems by comparison with the dynamics of carbon indicators of the economies of the leading countries of the world, it is shown that full compensation for anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) by absorption by the biosphere (primarily forests) is theoretically possible with implementation of difficult-to-implement large-scale reform programs in all sectors of the country’s economy—from energy to forestry. Thus, in an optimistic scenario, the rate of decline in specific GHG emissions per capita should be the maximum value achieved in the world over the past 50 years at 1% per year, and forest management should include full compensation for growing deforestation and a 50% reduction in forest losses from fires, which are currently the second (after energy) source of GHG emissions into the atmosphere. The most likely scenario is one with a rate of reduction in specific GHG emissions per capita of 0.5%/year, and a significant reduction in the sinking capacity of forests to the level of 1990 due to the aging of forests and imperfect reforestation activities. Under the latter scenario, net GHG emissions by 2060 could reach 0.7 Gt CO_2eq, which would require the creation of a national industry for large-scale carbon capture and storage in order to achieve climate neutrality of the Russian economy.