Where Are the Missing Workers? Anticipated and Unanticipated Labor Supply Changes in the Pandemic's Aftermath

Abstract

Labor force participation and average hours of work both fell sharply at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Neither had fully recovered by the end of 2022. The drop in participation between December 2019 and December 2022 implies a loss of 3 million people from the labor force; the decline in average hours over the same period translates to the equivalent of 2.6 million fewer workers. Demographic and other trend factors that predated the pandemic explain most of the participation shortfall. Taken together, COVID-19-related health effects and the persistent (though shrinking) effects of the fear of contracting COVID-19 more than explain the rest. In contrast, pre-pandemic factors account for little of the shortfall in hours. COVID-19-related health effects account for perhaps 40 percent of that decline, but we are unable to explain the majority of the hours shortfall. We speculate that the lower level of hours in the post-pandemic period may reflect a shift in the desired balance between work and other aspects of workers' lives.