Reviewing the overcapacity claim: Insights from Kenya’s electricity sector

Abstract

Typical approaches to assessing excess generation capacity in African electricity systems have considered the nameplate capacities of existing generation plants, the planned generation capacity, and peak load. However, the omission of variables such as the condition of transmission and distribution infrastructure, the age of existing power plants, and whether generation capacity is intermittent (as in the case of wind or solar) or subject to climate impacts (as in the case of hydropower) has caused such assessments to be misleading. This can result in misguided public policy and power procurement processes that are poorly matched to the needs of evolving power systems. In this paper, we analyze the case of Kenya to show how power system planning must consider these key factors that are often ignored. Far from having excess capacity as has been repeatedly reported, the Kenyan grid has limited capacity to take up additional load at present.