The international dimension of trend inflation

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-02-06 DOI:10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103896

Guido Ascari , Luca Fosso

引用次数: 0

Abstract

A trend-cycle BVAR decomposition investigates the role of different slow-moving trends – i.e., globalization, expectations, automation, labor demand and supply – in shaping the slow-moving dynamics of trend inflation. Despite well-anchored expectations, slow-moving imported “cost-push” factors induced disinflationary pressure keeping trend inflation below target. The cycle block provides evidence of inflation volatility increasingly driven by international factors. These results can explain why, from 2000 in the U.S. and before the recent surge, inflation remained both below target and silent to domestic slack.

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趋势性通货膨胀的国际层面

趋势周期 BVAR 分解研究了不同的缓慢变化趋势（即全球化、预期、自动化、劳动力需求和供应）在形成缓慢变化的趋势通胀动态中的作用。尽管有良好的预期，但缓慢移动的进口 "成本推动 "因素导致了通货紧缩压力，使趋势通胀率低于目标值。周期块提供的证据表明，通胀波动日益受到国际因素的驱动。这些结果可以解释为什么从 2000 年开始，美国的通胀率一直低于目标值，而且在最近的飙升之前，通胀率对国内的松弛保持沉默。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of International Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

5.80

自引率

6.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of International Economics is intended to serve as the primary outlet for theoretical and empirical research in all areas of international economics. These include, but are not limited to the following: trade patterns, commercial policy; international institutions; exchange rates; open economy macroeconomics; international finance; international factor mobility. The Journal especially encourages the submission of articles which are empirical in nature, or deal with issues of open economy macroeconomics and international finance. Theoretical work submitted to the Journal should be original in its motivation or modelling structure. Empirical analysis should be based on a theoretical framework, and should be capable of replication.