Restimate: Recovery Estimation Tool for Resilience Planning

IF 3.7 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
Scott Miles , Megan Ly , Nick Terry , Youngjun Choe
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) published the Community Resilience Planning Guide in 2016. The NIST Guide advocates for a participatory process for developing a performance measurement framework for the jurisdiction's resilience against a scenario hazard. The framework centers around tables of expected and desired recovery times for selected community assets, such as electricity, water, and natural gas infrastructures. The NIST Guide does not provide a method for estimating the expected recovery times. However, building high-fidelity computer models for such estimations requires substantial resources that even larger jurisdictions cannot cost-justify. The most promising approach to recovery time estimation is to systematically use data elicited from people to tap into the wisdom of the (knowledgeable) crowd. This paper describes a novel research-through-design project to enable the computer-supported elicitation of recovery time series data. This work is the first in the literature to examine people's ability to estimate recovery curves and how design influences such estimations. Its main contribution to resilience planning is three-fold: development of a new elicitation tool called Restimate, understanding its potential user base, and providing insights into how it can facilitate resilience planning. Restimate is the first tool to enable evidence-based expert elicitation in any community with limited resources for resilience planning. Beyond resilience planning, those who facilitate high-stakes planning activities under large uncertainties (e.g., mission-critical system design and planning) will benefit from a similar research-through-design process.

重新估算:复原力规划的复原力估算工具
美国国家标准与技术研究院(NIST)于 2016 年发布了《社区复原力规划指南》。NIST 指南提倡采用参与式流程,为辖区抵御情景灾害的能力制定绩效衡量框架。该框架以选定社区资产(如电力、水和天然气基础设施)的预期和期望恢复时间表为中心。NIST 指南没有提供估算预期恢复时间的方法。然而,建立用于此类估算的高保真计算机模型需要大量资源,即使是较大的辖区也无法在成本上得到合理的补偿。最有前途的恢复时间估算方法是系统地使用从人们那里获得的数据,利用(知识渊博的)群众的智慧。本文介绍了一个新颖的 "通过设计进行研究 "项目,该项目可在计算机支持下获取恢复时间序列数据。这是文献中首次研究人们估算恢复曲线的能力以及设计如何影响这种估算。它对恢复能力规划的主要贡献有三个方面:开发了一种名为 Restimate 的新激发工具,了解了其潜在用户群,并就该工具如何促进恢复能力规划提供了见解。Restimate 是第一个能够在资源有限的社区进行基于证据的专家征询的工具。除抗灾规划外,那些在巨大不确定性条件下促进高风险规划活动(如关键任务系统设计和规划)的人也将受益于类似的 "通过设计进行研究 "的流程。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
安全科学与韧性(英文)
安全科学与韧性(英文) Management Science and Operations Research, Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality, Safety Research
CiteScore
8.70
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
审稿时长
72 days
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