{"title":"Robots at work in emerging developing countries: How bad could it be?","authors":"Carlos J. García, Wildo D. González, Tiare Rivera","doi":"10.1016/j.labeco.2024.102512","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We address the impact that robots will have on emerging developing economies by using a nonlinear general equilibrium model consistent with the empirical evidence available so far. The impact in the first decades is negative at the aggregate level, which then reverses due to productivity gains. These economies accommodate the rise of robots not only with a fall in the interest rate, but also with a real depreciation in the medium term and a reduction in marginal costs. Despite these adjustments, the labor force loses out and the gap in terms of economic growth with the developed world increases dramatically. We show that the direct production of robots, and thus the existence of human capital to produce them, could trigger a virtuous circle with other sectors in these countries to achieve high growth rates driven by the export sector.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48153,"journal":{"name":"Labour Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2000,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Labour Economics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927537124000083","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
We address the impact that robots will have on emerging developing economies by using a nonlinear general equilibrium model consistent with the empirical evidence available so far. The impact in the first decades is negative at the aggregate level, which then reverses due to productivity gains. These economies accommodate the rise of robots not only with a fall in the interest rate, but also with a real depreciation in the medium term and a reduction in marginal costs. Despite these adjustments, the labor force loses out and the gap in terms of economic growth with the developed world increases dramatically. We show that the direct production of robots, and thus the existence of human capital to produce them, could trigger a virtuous circle with other sectors in these countries to achieve high growth rates driven by the export sector.
期刊介绍:
Labour Economics is devoted to publishing research in the field of labour economics both on the microeconomic and on the macroeconomic level, in a balanced mix of theory, empirical testing and policy applications. It gives due recognition to analysis and explanation of institutional arrangements of national labour markets and the impact of these institutions on labour market outcomes.