Predicting life expectancy in the United States: The importance of healthy living behaviors and residential geography

Abstract

According to the World Health Organization, 30 countries currently have a life expectancy of ≥80 years: the United States (U.S.) is not among this group of countries. The current analysis assesses the ability of key lifestyle behaviors and characteristics to predict a life expectancy of ≥80 years. Only 577 (19%) of the 3066 U.S. Counties assessed had a life expectancy ≥80 years. These counties had significantly higher life expectancy (81 ± 3 vs. 76 ± 2 years) and lower percent of the population who are physically inactive (20.7 ± 3.9 vs. 27.0 ± 4.7%), actively smoke (15.9 ± 3.1 vs. 21.1 ± 3.6%), obese (31.7 ± 4.7 vs. 37.3 ± 3.9%) and have limited access to healthy food (7.1 ± 6.8 vs. 8.4 ± 6.6%) (all p < 0.001). Binary logistic regression revealed percent adults who currently smoke, percent obese, percent physically inactive, and percent with limited access to healthy food were all significant univariate predictors of </≥80 years life expectancy (p < 0.001) and retained in the multivariate regression (p < 0.05). A better understanding of the driving forces that increase healthy living behaviors should be a primary goal in the effort to increase U.S. life expectancy: an individualized approach recognizing unique regional cultures may significantly improve adoption and maintenance of desirable health behaviors and outcomes.