The wind of change: Gibbs energy of binding and infectivity evolution of Omicron BA.2.86 Pirola, EG.5.1, XBB.1.16 Arcturus, CH.1.1 and BN.1 variants of SARS-CoV-2

IF 3 4区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Microbial Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI:10.1016/j.mran.2024.100290

Marko E. Popović , Gavrilo Šekularac , Marta Popović

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

A question is often asked about what tomorrow brings. During the last 4 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, this question was asked with every appearance of a new SARS-CoV-2 variant. It seems that science has an ability to offer a relatively reliable answer. Theoretical and experimental research have allowed a deep insight into structure and function of SARS-CoV-2. Moreover, the developed mechanistic models allow prediction of virus-host interactions. In August 2023, the Omicron BA.2.86 Pirola variant was detected. Taught by the bad experience from 2019 to 2023, when every new variant that appeared during SARS-CoV-2 evolution has caused a new pandemic wave, the question was raised whether this will be the case with the new variant. Research presented in this paper shows that the driving force for antigen-receptor binding of the Omicron BA.2.86 variant is lower than that of the BN.1 and similar to that of the other variants. Based on the presented research, it seems that the new variant will not be more aggressive relative to the previous variants. The movement in the number of newly infected cases in USA in the period between August and mid-October 2023 is in favor of this prediction.

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变化之风：SARS-CoV-2的Omicron BA.2.86 Pirola、EG.5.1、XBB.1.16 Arcturus、CH.1.1和BN.1变体的吉布斯结合能和传染性演变

人们经常会问，明天会发生什么？在 COVID-19 大流行的过去 4 年中，每出现一种新的 SARS-CoV-2 变体，人们就会提出这个问题。科学似乎有能力提供一个相对可靠的答案。理论和实验研究使人们得以深入了解 SARS-CoV-2 的结构和功能。此外，建立的机理模型还可以预测病毒与宿主的相互作用。2023 年 8 月，发现了 Omicron BA.2.86 Pirola 变种。从 2019 年到 2023 年，SARS-CoV-2 演变过程中出现的每一个新变种都会引发新一轮的大流行，有鉴于此，人们提出了新变种是否也会如此的问题。本文介绍的研究表明，Omicron BA.2.86 变体的抗原受体结合驱动力低于 BN.1，与其他变体相似。根据上述研究，新变种似乎不会比以前的变种更具侵袭性。2023 年 8 月至 10 月中旬期间美国新感染病例数量的变化也支持这一预测。

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来源期刊

Microbial Risk Analysis Medicine-Microbiology (medical)

CiteScore

5.70

自引率

7.10%

发文量

审稿时长

52 days

期刊介绍： The journal Microbial Risk Analysis accepts articles dealing with the study of risk analysis applied to microbial hazards. Manuscripts should at least cover any of the components of risk assessment (risk characterization, exposure assessment, etc.), risk management and/or risk communication in any microbiology field (clinical, environmental, food, veterinary, etc.). This journal also accepts article dealing with predictive microbiology, quantitative microbial ecology, mathematical modeling, risk studies applied to microbial ecology, quantitative microbiology for epidemiological studies, statistical methods applied to microbiology, and laws and regulatory policies aimed at lessening the risk of microbial hazards. Work focusing on risk studies of viruses, parasites, microbial toxins, antimicrobial resistant organisms, genetically modified organisms (GMOs), and recombinant DNA products are also acceptable.