Domain Generalization in Time Series Forecasting

Abstract

Domain generalization aims to design models that can effectively generalize to unseen target domains by learning from observed source domains. Domain generalization poses a significant challenge for time series data, due to varying data distributions and temporal dependencies. Existing approaches to domain generalization are not designed for time series data, which often results in suboptimal or unstable performance when confronted with diverse temporal patterns and complex data characteristics. We propose a novel approach to tackle the problem of domain generalization in time series forecasting. We focus on a scenario where time series domains share certain common attributes and exhibit no abrupt distribution shifts. Our method revolves around the incorporation of a key regularization term into an existing time series forecasting model: domain discrepancy regularization. In this way, we aim to enforce consistent performance across different domains that exhibit distinct patterns. We calibrate the regularization term by investigating the performance within individual domains and propose the domain discrepancy regularization with domain difficulty awareness. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on multiple datasets, including synthetic and real-world time series datasets from diverse domains such as retail, transportation, and finance. Our method is compared against traditional methods, deep learning models, and domain generalization approaches to provide comprehensive insights into its performance. In these experiments, our method showcases superior performance, surpassing both the base model and competing domain generalization models across all datasets. Furthermore, our method is highly general and can be applied to various time series models.